The 39th weekend of the year is looking like a good $114 million for the top 12 films, up 22% from the $94 million multi-year average for this weekend.
Opening at over 3,800 theaters Friday (way above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 from Sony should average $11,900 per theater for the weekend (for an $45.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews are strong at RottenTomatoes: 75% positive overall with very few so in far. Cloudy 2 should be on track for $130 million domestic, similar to the $124.9 million for Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (which opened with $30.3 million 9.18-20.2009).
Opening at around 2,200 theaters Friday, Rush from Universal should average $5,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $12.5 million opening three-day weekend). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are a strong 88% positive. Rush should be headed for $45 million domestic.
Opening at around 2,200 theaters Friday, Don Jon from Relativity should average $5,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $11.0 million opening three-day weekend). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes look like a very good 82% positive. Don Jon should be on pace for $40 million domestic.
Opening at around 1,800 theaters Friday, Baggage Claim from 20th Century Fox should average $5,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $9.0 million opening three-day weekend). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are a brutal 11% positive. Baggage Claim should be on track for $20 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND September 27-29, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs | Sony | PG | 75% | 45.0 | 148 | |
| Rush | Uni | R | 88% | 12.5 | 45 | |
| Don Jon | Rel | R | 82% | 11.0 | 40 | |
| Baggage Claim | Fox | PG13 | 11% | 9.0 | 20 | |
Prisoners will be the top holdover and the only one doing significant business.
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RETURNING FILMS September 27-29, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Prisoners | WB | -39% | 12.7 | 67 | |
| Insidious Chapter 2 | FilmDis | -52% | 6.7 | 84 | |
| Instructions Not Included | LG/Sum | -27% | 4.0 | 45 | |
| The Family | Rel | -49% | 3.6 | 40 | |
| We’re the Millers | WB | -40% | 3.3 | 150 | |
| Lee Daniels’ The Butler | Weins | -33% | 2.8 | 120 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $94 million total, ranking 44th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $107 million (while 2011 was $90 million and 2010 was $86 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a good $114 million, up 22% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 7% from the comparable weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
9.28.2012
Hotel Transylvania SONY PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $24 Actual: $43
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $140 Actual: $148
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $199
Looper SONY R Bruce Willis Joseph Gordon-Levitt
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $19 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $76 Actual: $66
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $110
Won’t Back Down FOX PG Maggie Gyllenhaal Viola Davis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $5 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $5 Actual: $5
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Pitch Perfect UNI PG13 Anna Kendrick Brittany Snow
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $66 Actual: $65
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $48
9.30.2011
50/50 SUMMIT R Seth Rogen Joseph Gordon-Levitt
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $37 Actual: $35
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4
Dream House UNI PG13 Daniel Craig Rachel Weisz
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $17
What’s Your Number? FOX R Anna Faris Chris Evans
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $15 Actual: $14
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
Courageous SONY PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $35
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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