This weekend will definitely be up over the disaster that was last weekend. We expect the top 12 films to total around $74 million, although that is still down 15% from the same weekend last year. The returning films won’t contribute much to the weekend total, but two new films this weekend (the 3D re-release of a beloved Disney animated classic and the fifth in a reasonably popular action horror franchise) will have at least respectable openings.
Opening at about 2,900 theaters Friday, the re-release of Disney’s Finding Nemo 3D should average $8,700 per theater (for a $25.0 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] This would be below the $30.1 million opening weekend for the similar 3D re-release of Lion King one year ago, but the decline is not surprising given recent weakness in box office generally. Finding Nemo 3D should go on to gross $91 million total domestically, a shade below the $94.2 million for Lion King 3D. At RottenTomatoes, Finding Nemo is one of the best reviewed films ever: 99% positive. Out of 206 posted reviews, only 2 reviewers were negative (as they allegedly also hate puppies, kittens, babies and good deeds).
Opening at around 2,850 theaters Friday, Resident Evil: Retribution from Sony should average a solid $7,800 per theater (for a $22.0 million opening weekend). However, given its action horror genre, the movie will play out 
rapidly as hard core fans rush to see it early. The fifth in the series should wind up with about $55 million domestic. The first Resident Evil opened March 2002 with $17.7 million on its way to $40.1 million domestic. Resident Evil: Apocalypse opened September 2004 with $23.0 million on its way to $51.2 million. Resident Evil: Extinction opened September 2007 with $23.7 million on its way to $50.6 million. Resident Evil: Afterlife opened September 2010 with $26.6 million and finished with $60.1 million. No sense of critical reaction for Retribution — Sony did not make the film available to critics, but the fans will see it regardless.
But the real value of the Resident Evil franchise is overseas, where the last film (Afterlife) grossed $236.1 million, more than doubling the overseas total for Extinction ($97.1 million). Apocalypse in 2004 grossed $78.2 million overseas, while the original Resident Evil grossed $62.3 million overseas in 2002. Retribution could total $250-275 million overseas for Sony.
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| September 14-16, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| Finding Nemo 3D | Dis | G | 99% | 25.0 | 91 | |
| Resident Evil: Retribution | Sony | R | n/a | 22.0 | 55 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The holdovers are getting down to pretty low levels, with The Possession leading the way as it fights to stay above $5 million in its third weekend.
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| September 14-16, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| The Possession | LG | -48% | 4.8 | 52 | |
| Lawless | Weins | -40% | 3.6 | 40 | |
| Expendables 2 | LG | -45% | 2.7 | 89 | |
| ParaNorman | Foc/Uni | -36% | 2.7 | 57 | |
| The Words | CBS | -50% | 2.4 | 10 | |
| Bourne Legacy | Uni | -45% | 2.2 | 115 | |
| Odd Life of Timothy Green | Dis | -42% | 2.1 | 52 | |
| 2016 Obama’s America | Rocky Mtn | -40% | 2.0 | 36 | |
| The Campaign | WB | -41% | 2.0 | 89 | |
| Dark Knight Rises | WB | -48% | 1.7 | 443 | |
| Hope Springs | Sony | -40% | 1.7 | 67 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $84 million total, ranking 47th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $86 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $87 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a weak $74 million, down 13% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and down 15% from last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
9.16.2011
Lion King 3D DIS G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $122 Actual: $94
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $78
Drive FILMDISR Ryan Gosling Carey Mulligan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $35
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $41
I Don’t Know How She Does It WEINS PG13 Sarah Jessica Parker Christina Hendricks
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $9 Actual: $9
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21
Straw Dogs SONY R James Marsden Kate Bosworth
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $12 Actual: $10
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
9.17.2010
The Town WB R Ben Affleck Jon Hamm
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $24
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $94 Actual: $92
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $53
Easy A SONY PG13 Emma Stone Cam Gigandet
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $62 Actual: $58
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
Devil UNI PG13 Geoffrey Arend Chris Messina
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $37 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $29
Alpha and Omega LG PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $21 Actual: $25
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $22
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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