The weekend looks like a terrific $242 million for the top 12 films, a little better than it looked yesterday (now 20% better than the multi-year average for this weekend). Twilight Breaking Dawn Part 2 appears a little stronger than it did yesterday and is close to matching our predictions in Wednesday’s ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Forecast. Lincoln will definitely exceed our more modest prediction of $17.5 milion.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 ($289 million) and Lincoln ($89 million).
Second week films: Skyfall ($266 million, up from the initial $208 million estimate last week).
Third week films: Wreck-It Ralph ($178 million,in between $183 million in week two and $171 million in week one) and Flight ($86 million, similar to $87 million in week two and up from $78 million in week one).
Fourth week films: Cloud Atlas ($28 million, down slightly from the $30-32 million range the first three weeks).
| Weekend 46: Nov 16-18, 2012 | ($ millions) | ||||
| vs Last Wknd | Wknd Studio Proj. | Showbuzz Domestic Final | |||
| Breaking Dawn Part 2 | Summit | 141.3 | 289 | ||
| Skyfall | Sony | -53% | 41.5 | 266 | |
| Lincoln | Disney | +2124% | 21.0 | 89 | |
| Wreck-It Ralph | Disney | -45% | 18.3 | 178 | |
| Flight | Par | -42% | 8.6 | 86 | |
| Argo | WB | -38% | 4.1 | 107 | |
| Taken 2 | Fox | -48% | 2.1 | 142 | |
| Pitch Perfect | Universal | -51% | 1.3 | 67 | |
| Here Comes the Boom | Sony/Col | -52% | 1.2 | 45 | |
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like a great $242 million total Friday-Sunday, up 20% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and up 13% from the same weekend last year.
| ($ millions) | |||
| WEEKEND #46 | Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | |
| 2012 | $242 | Breaking Dawn Part 2 $141, Lincoln $21 | |
| 2011 | $215 | Breaking Dawn Part 1 $138, Happy Feet Two $21 | |
| 2010 | $186 | Harry Potter Deathly Hallows Part 1 $125 | |
| 2009 | $250 | Twilight New Moon $143, The Blind Side $34 | |
| 2008 | $157 | Twilight $69, Bolt $26 | |
| Avg 2008-11 | $202 | ||
Opening Next Week
Opening wide Wednesday for the big Thanksgiving weekend: Rise of the Guardians from Paramount/DreamWorks (animation), Life of Pi from 20th Century Fox (adventure from director Ang Lee), and Red Dawn from FilmDistrict (a remake of the military invasion movie starring Josh Hutcherson). These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year: The Muppets ($29.2 million opening weekend Fri-Sun and $41.5 million Wed-Sun at 3,440 theaters), Arthur Christmas ($12.1 million Fri-Sun and $16.3 million Wed-Sun at 3,376 theaters), Hugo ($11.4 million Fri-Sun and $15.4 million Wed-Sun at only 1,277 theaters), and The Descendants ($7.3 million Fri-Sun and $10.9 million Wed-Sun at a limited 390 theaters).
International grosses will be updated as available.
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