Ted now looks like a $54.1 million opening weekend, according to the studio estimate this morning (exceeding our forecast in Wednesday’s ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Predictions). Warner Brothers has pulled Magic Mike’s weekend estimate below $40 million, while Madea’s Witness Protection is down a bit to $26.4 million. Brave is on track for a 49% decline (a very average number and worse than quality animation can do), but the film is still on pace for a $220 million domestic gross.
All in all a pretty good weekend, with a critical mass of popular films playing simultaneously. The box office volume for the top 12 films is looking like $197 million for the weekend, about the same as it looked yesterday and up versus prior years.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: Ted ($170 million), Magic Mike ($129 million), Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection ($83 million) and People Like Us ($16 million).
Second week films: Brave ($220 million, even with last week’s initial estimate), Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter ($38 million, down slightly from last week) and Seeking a Friend for the End of the World ($8 million, down from last week).
Third week films: Rock of Ages ($43 million, back down to the first week estimate) and That’s My Boy ($42 million, down slightly from last week).
Fourth week films: Madagascar 3 ($220 million, down a touch from last week) and Prometheus ($133 million, down slightly from last week).
Fifth week films: Snow White and the Huntsman ($158 million, even with last week).
| Weekend 26: June 29-July 1, 2012 | ($ millions) | ||||
| vs Last Wknd | Wknd Studio Proj. | Showbuzz Domestic Final | |||
| Ted | Uni | 54.1 | 170 | ||
| Magic Mike | WB | 39.2 | 129 | ||
| Brave | Dis Pix | -49% | 34.0 | 220 | |
| TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection | LG | 26.4 | 83 | ||
| Madagascar 3 | Par DW | -40% | 11.8 | 220 | |
| Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter | Fox | -63% | 6.0 | 38 | |
| Prometheus | Fox | -50% | 4.9 | 133 | |
| Moonrise Kingdom | Foc Uni | +44% | 4.9 | n/a | |
| Snow White and the Huntsman | Uni | -46% | 4.4 | 158 | |
| People Like Us | Dis | 4.3 | 16 | ||
| Marvel’s The Avengers | Dis | -41% | 4.2 | 609 | |
| Men in Black 3 | Par | -49% | 2.9 | 183 | |
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $197 million total Friday-Sunday, much better than we forecast Wednesday, up 3% from the same calendar weekend last year but more significantly up 16% from the average for this weekend the past four years.
| ($ millions) | |||
| WEEKEND #26 | Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend | |
| 2012 | $197 | Ted $54, Magic Mike $39, Madea’s Witness Protection $26 | |
| 2011 | $192 | Transformers Dark Moon $98, Larry Crowne $13 | |
| 2010 | $181 | Twilight Eclipse $65, Last Airbender $40 | |
| 2009 | $156 | Ice Age Dawn Dinosaurs $42, Public Enemies $25 | |
| 2008 | $153 | Hancock $63 | |
| Avg 2008-11 | $170 | ||
Next Weekend
Opening wide next weekend are The Amazing Spider-Man from Sony (actually opening Tuesday), Katy Perry: Part of Me from Paramount (opening Thursday) and Savages from Universal (opening Friday). These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year: Horrible Bosses ($28.3 million opening weekend) and Zookeeper ($20.1 million).
Check back later today for our update on international grosses.
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