Ted now looks like a $54.1 million opening weekend, according to the studio estimate this morning (exceeding our forecast in Wednesday’s ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Predictions). Warner Brothers has pulled Magic Mike’s weekend estimate below $40 million, while Madea’s Witness Protection is down a bit to $26.4 million. Brave is on track for a 49% decline (a very average number and worse than quality animation can do), but the film is still on pace for a $220 million domestic gross.
All in all a pretty good weekend, with a critical mass of popular films playing simultaneously. The box office volume for the top 12 films is looking like $197 million for the weekend, about the same as it looked yesterday and up versus prior years.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: Ted ($170 million), Magic Mike ($129 million), Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection ($83 million) and People Like Us ($16 million).
Second week films: Brave ($220 million, even with last week’s initial estimate), Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter ($38 million, down slightly from last week) and Seeking a Friend for the End of the World ($8 million, down from last week).
Third week films: Rock of Ages ($43 million, back down to the first week estimate) and That’s My Boy ($42 million, down slightly from last week).
Fourth week films: Madagascar 3 ($220 million, down a touch from last week) and Prometheus ($133 million, down slightly from last week).
Fifth week films: Snow White and the Huntsman ($158 million, even with last week).
|Weekend 26: June 29-July 1, 2012||($ millions)|
|vs Last Wknd||Wknd Studio Proj.||Showbuzz Domestic Final|
|TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection||LG||26.4||83|
|Madagascar 3||Par DW||-40%||11.8||220|
|Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter||Fox||-63%||6.0||38|
|Moonrise Kingdom||Foc Uni||+44%||4.9||n/a|
|Snow White and the Huntsman||Uni||-46%||4.4||158|
|People Like Us||Dis||4.3||16|
|Marvel’s The Avengers||Dis||-41%||4.2||609|
|Men in Black 3||Par||-49%||2.9||183|
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $197 million total Friday-Sunday, much better than we forecast Wednesday, up 3% from the same calendar weekend last year but more significantly up 16% from the average for this weekend the past four years.
|WEEKEND #26||Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films||Top Movies Opening Each Weekend|
|2012||$197||Ted $54, Magic Mike $39, Madea’s Witness Protection $26|
|2011||$192||Transformers Dark Moon $98, Larry Crowne $13|
|2010||$181||Twilight Eclipse $65, Last Airbender $40|
|2009||$156||Ice Age Dawn Dinosaurs $42, Public Enemies $25|
Opening wide next weekend are The Amazing Spider-Man from Sony (actually opening Tuesday), Katy Perry: Part of Me from Paramount (opening Thursday) and Savages from Universal (opening Friday). These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year: Horrible Bosses ($28.3 million opening weekend) and Zookeeper ($20.1 million).
Check back later today for our update on international grosses.