Three films are really driving a very solid box office weekend: The Amazing Spider-Man (now a $65.0 million opening weekend and $140 million six-day opening, hitting our forecast in Tuesday’s ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Predictions), the second weekend of Ted (down a very decent 40% from its opening) and the third weekend of Brave (down 41% this weekend, improving on a 49% drop in the second weekend). Savages, now estimated by Universal to open at $16.2 million this weekend on its way to a ShowbuzzDaily final domestic forecast of $53 million, will not be a factor at the box office in coming weeks. The other opener, Katy Perry: Part of Me, is headed for only $7.2 million in its first traditional weekend and $10.2 million over its first four days. It might hit $22 million total domestic — even with an extremely low budget this is not a moneymaker.
The box office volume for the top 12 films is looking like $187 million for the weekend, up substantially from the previous years, as this year the Fourth of July falling on a Wednesday really kick-started the Friday-Sunday period.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: The Amazing Spider-Man ($289 million), Savages ($53 million) and Katy Perry: Part of Me ($22 million).
Second week films: Ted ($209 million, up significantly from last week’s initial estimate), Magic Mike ($111 million, down somewhat from last week), Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection ($66 million, down from last week) and People Like Us ($14 million, down a touch from last week).
Third week films: Brave ($242 million, up from last week) and Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter ($37 million, even with last week).
Fourth week films: Rock of Ages ($40 million, down slightly for the second week in a row) and That’s My Boy ($38 million, down slightly for the second week in a row).
Fifth week films: Madagascar 3 ($226 million, up slightly from last week) and Prometheus ($128 million, down slightly for the second week in a row).
| Weekend 27: July 6-8, 2012 | ($ millions) | ||||
| vs Last Wknd | Wknd Studio Proj. | Showbuzz Domestic Final | |||
| Amazing Spider-Man | Sony | 65.0 | 289 | ||
| Ted | Uni | -40% | 32.6 | 209 | |
| Brave | Dis | -41% | 20.2 | 242 | |
| Savages | Uni | 16.2 | 53 | ||
| Magic Mike | WB | -60% | 15.6 | 111 | |
| TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection | LG | -60% | 10.2 | 66 | |
| Madagascar 3 | Par DW | -35% | 7.7 | 226 | |
| Katy Perry: Part of Me | Par | 7.2 | 22 | ||
| Moonrise Kingdom | Foc Uni | -6% | 4.6 | 45 | |
| To Rome with Love | Uni | +406% | 3.5 | n/a | |
| People Like Us | Dis | -47% | 2.3 | 14 | |
| Marvel’s The Avengers | Dis | -51% | 2.2 | 615 | |
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $187 million total Friday-Sunday, up 28% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 23% from the average for this weekend the past four years.
| ($ millions) | |||
| WEEKEND #27 | Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend | |
| 2012 | $187 | Amazing Spider-Man $65, Savages $16 | |
| 2011 | $146 | Horrible Bosses $28, Zookeeper $20 | |
| 2010 | $184 | Despicable Me $56, Predators $25 | |
| 2009 | $135 | Bruno $31, I Love You Beth Cooper $5 | |
| 2008 | $144 | Hellboy II $35, Journey Center Earth $21 | |
| Avg 2008-11 | $152 | ||
Next Weekend
Opening wide next weekend is Ice Age: Continental Drift from 20th Century Fox. This film will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 ($169.2 million opening weekend) and Winnie the Pooh ($7.9 million).
Check back later today for our update on international grosses.
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