Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #27 of 2014 looks like $118 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, even worse than the $126 million estimate yesterday, now 31% below the norm for this weekend, and well below the $153.2 million weekend for the top 12 the last time July 4 fell on a Friday (in 2008 when Hancock opened with $62.6 million Friday-Sunday and $103.9 million Wednesday-Sunday). Just a dreadful and ghastly collection of movies now playing, according to the audience.
Opening at 3,465 theaters, Tammy from Warner Brothers grossed $6.4 million Friday and $8.7 million Saturday and is now on track for a $21.2 million opening three-day weekend (slightly below our $24.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $6,100 per theater for the weekend (barely above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Including Wednesday and Thursday, Tammy should total $32.9 million for the first five-days (quite close to our $32 million forecast). Critical sentiment is weak (27% positive overall and a similar 24% positive with top critics). Tammy is headed for $69 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,045 theaters, Deliver Us From Evil from Sony/Screen Gems grossed $2.5 million Friday and $4.1 million Saturday and is now on track for a $9.5 million opening three-day weekend (still way below our $18.5 million forecast but better than it looked yesterday). The film is pacing toward a low three-day average of $3,100 per theater for the three-day weekend. Including Wednesday and Thursday, the horror film should total $15.0 million for the first five days (well below our $24 million forecast). Critical sentiment is soft (32% positive overall and 30% positive with top critics). Deliver Us From Evil is headed for $27 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,045 theaters, Earth to Echo from Relativity grossed $2.6 million Friday $3.2 million Saturday and is now on track for a $8.3 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $10.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a poor three-day average of $2,500 per theater for the three-day weekend. Including Wednesday and Thursday, the film should total $13.5 million for the first five days (near our $14 million forecast). Critical sentiment is mediocre but the best of the bunch for this weekend (51% positive overall and 43% positive with top critics). Earth to Echo is headed for $25 million total domestic.
Expanding to 1,105 theaters, America: Imagine a World without Her from Lionsgate and Dinesh D’Souza is on track for a $2.7 million opening three-day weekend (way below our $7.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a weak three-day average of $2,500 per theater for the three-day weekend. Including Wednesday and Thursday and its small platform release last the week, the film should total $4.0 million through Sunday (well below our $10 million forecast). Critical sentiment is hostile (13% positive overall and a rare 0% positive with top critics). America is headed for $6 million total domestic.
Transformers: Age of Extinction is headed for $36.4 million this weekend (down 64% from last weekend and below our $40.5 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for the latest Transformers has been adjusted down to $250 million. 22 Jump Street is headed for $9.4 million this weekend (down 41% from last weekend and slightly above our $9.1 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for 22 Jump Street has been adjusted to $190 million. How to Train Your Dragon 2 is headed for $8.8 million this weekend (down 34% from last weekend and somewhat above our $7.7 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for How to Train Your Dragon 2 has been adjusted down slightly to $170 million.
| Weekend 27: July 4-6, 2014 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Transformers: Age of Extinction | Par | [40.5] | 38.5 | 36.4 | 10.6–14.7 | 250 | |
| Tammy | WB | [24.5] | 21.5 | 21.2 | 6.4–8.7 | 69 | |
| How to Train Your Dragon 2 | Fox | [7.7] | 10.0 | 8.8 | 2.8–3.4 | 170 | |
| 22 Jump Street | Sony | [9.1] | 9.8 | 9.4 | 2.5–4.1 | 190 | |
| Earth to Echo | Rel | [10.5] | 9.7 | 8.3 | 2.6–3.2 | 25 | |
| Deliver Us From Evil | Sony | [18.5] | 9.2 | 9.5 | 2.5–4.1 | 27 | |
| Maleficent | Dis | [5.1] | 6.5 | 6.1 | 1.8–2.4 | 239 | |
| Jersey Boys | WB | [4.4] | 6.2 | 5.2 | 1.8–1.9 | 50 | |
| Think Like a Man Too | Sony | [5.4] | 4.8 | 4.9 | 1.3–2.1 | 65 | |
| Edge of Tomorrow | WB | [—] | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.0–1.5 | 103 | |
| America | LG/Sum | [7.0] | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.0–.95 | 6 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $118 million total Friday-Sunday, down 31% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 47% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 27 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $118 | Tammy $21.2, Deliver Us from Evil $9.5, Earth to Echo $8.3 | |
| 2013 | $222 | Despicable Me 2 $83.5, The Lone Ranger $29.2, Kevin Hart Let Me Explain $10.1 | |
| 2012 | $182 | Amazing Spider-Man $62.0, Savages $16.0, Katy Perry Part of Me $7.1 | |
| 2011 | $146 | Horrible Bosses $28.3, Zookeeper $20.1 | |
| 2010 | $184 | Twilight Saga: Eclipse $64.8, The Last Airbender $40.3 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $171 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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