Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #1 of 2013 is now on pace for $126 million, a touch stronger than it looked yesterday and still very much line with the comparable weekend in previous years. Both Texas Chainsaw 3D and Django Unchained are also looking a little stronger than they seemed yesterday, but the long term prospects for Texas Chainsaw are decidedly dim (something over $50 million domestic when it leaves theaters). In contrast, Django is headed for at least $175 million, and quite possibly much more if Quentin Tarantino nabs the Oscar for Best Director.
In limited release, The Impossible is stronger than forecast ($2.76 million versus $1.4 million forecast) — the $4,825 per theater weekend average at 572 theaters is much better than forecast but still pretty soft. Promised Land is on track for $4.311 million this weekend, comfortably above our forecast ($3.1 million) but still floundering with a $2,573 weekend average at 1,676 theaters. At only 60 theaters, Zero Dark Thirty is looking like a very good $45,833 per theater for the weekend (an estimated $2.75 million for Friday-Sunday, which would bring its total to $4.46 million through Sunday).
| Weekend 1: January 4-6, 2013 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri/ Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Texas Chainsaw 3D | LG | [17.8] | 22.5 | 23.0 | 10.2 / 7.9 | 56 | |
| Django Unchained | Weins | [17.5] | 19.8 | 20.1 | 6.2 / 8.4 | 175 | |
| The Hobbit | WB | [19.8] | 17.5 | 17.5 | 5.2 / 7.7 | 295 | |
| Les Miserables | Uni | [15.1] | 16.3 | 16.1 | 4.9 / 6.8 | 145 | |
| Parental Guidance | Fox | [9.8] | 10.3 | 10.1 | 3.1 / 4.3 | 85 | |
| Jack Reacher | Par | [8.4] | 9.4 | 9.30 | 2.9 / 4.0 | 90 | |
| This Is 40 | Uni | [7.8] | 8.7 | 8.60 | 2.7 / 3.6 | 75 | |
| Lincoln | Dis | [5.5] | 5.4 | 5.26 | 1.6 / 2.4 | 165 | |
| The Guilt Trip | Par | [4.4] | 4.7 | 4.53 | 1.5 / 1.9 | 45 | |
| Promised Land | Foc/Uni | [3.1] | 3.8 | 4.31 | 1.3 / 1.8 | 14 | |
| Monsters, Inc. 3D | Dis | [3.8] | 3.9 | 3.92 | 1.1 / 1.7 | 40 | |
| Silver Linings Playbook | Weins | [3.1] | 3.6 | 3.61 | 1.1 / 1.6 | 70 | |
| The Impossible | Summit | [1.4] | 2.5 | 2.76 | 0.8 / 1.2 | 13 | |
| Zero Dark Thirty | Sony | [—] | 2.6 | 2.75 | 0.8 / 1.1 | n/a | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $126 million total Friday-Sunday, right on target with previous years: up 1% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and even with the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND #1 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2013 | $126 | Texas Chainsaw 3D $23, The Impossible $2.8 | |
| 2012 | $126 | The Devil Inside $34, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy $5.5 | |
| 2011 | $99 | Season of the Witch $11, Country Strong $7 | |
| 2010 | $149 | Daybreakers $15, Leap Year $9 | |
| 2009 | $128 | Gran Torino $29, Bride Wars $21, The Unborn $20 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $125 | ||
Check later for the International Box Office report.
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