Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #5 of 2014 now looks like $72 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, even worse than the usual pace for a Super Bowl weekend and two million dollars below yesterday’s estimate.
Opening at 2,809 theaters Friday, That Awkward Moment from Focus/Universal grossed a small $3.9 million Friday and a weak $3.8 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a $9.0 million opening weekend (below our $12.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a weak three-day average of $3,200 per theater for the weekend (below the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is not kind (23% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and an even worse 12% positive with top critics). That Awkward Moment is headed for a quick exit from theaters and maybe $23 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,584 theaters Friday, Labor Day from Paramount grossed a diminutive $1.9 million Friday and $2.4 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a $5.3 million opening weekend (near our $5.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a truly awful three-day average of $2,050 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak (32% positive overall and 33% positive with top critics). Labor Day is headed for a quick exit from theaters and maybe $9 million total domestic.
Ride Along remains at the top of the chart but its final domestic total forecast has been adjusted to $120 million.
In limited release, Tim’s Vermeer from Sony Pictures Classics opened with a $14,468 weekend average at 4 theaters. In contrast, 12 O’Clock Boys from Oscilloscope opened with a weak $2,452 average at 21 theaters.
| Weekend 5: January 24-26, 2014 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Ride Along | Uni | [11.5] | 12.0 | 12.3 | 4.0-6.5 | 120 | |
| Frozen 3D | Dis | [8.5] | 9.5 | 9.3 | 2.2-4.6 | 370 | |
| That Awkward Moment | Foc | [12.5] | 10.0 | 9.0 | 3.9-3.8 | 23 | |
| The Nut Job | OpenR | [7.6] | 8.0 | 7.6 | 1.8-3.9 | 65 | |
| Lone Survivor | Uni | [6.9] | 7.0 | 7.2 | 2.3-3.9 | 126 | |
| Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit | Par | [4.7] | 5.4 | 5.4 | 1.8-2.8 | 52 | |
| Labor Day | Par | [5.5] | 5.5 | 5.3 | 1.9-2.4 | 9 | |
| American Hustle | Sony | [4.7] | 4.2 | 4.3 | 1.3-2.3 | 152 | |
| The Wolf of Wall Street | Par | [3.5] | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.1-1.8 | 117 | |
| I, Frankenstein | LG/Sum | [2.9] | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.1-1.8 | 15 | |
| August: Osage County | Weins | [3.2] | 2.9 | 2.9 | .92-1.5 | 40 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like an unexceptional $72 million total Friday-Sunday, down 19% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but up 5% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 5 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $72 | That Awkward Moment $9.0, Labor Day $5.3 | |
| 2013 | $69 | Warm Bodies $19.8, Bullet to the Head $4.5 | |
| 2012 | $94 | Chronicle $22.0, Woman in Black $20.9, Big Miracle $7.8 | |
| 2011 | $73 | The Roommate $15.0, Sanctum $9.4 | |
| 2010 | $100 | Dear John $20.5, From Paris with Love $8.2 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $89 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.
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