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December 4, 2011
 

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES December 2-4

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 1 will drop another 59% this weekend but remain at #1, and its final domestic estimate has been downgraded to $269 million.  The Muppets dropped a very surprising 62%, and its final domestic estimate has been taken down below $100 million.  Overall box office this weekend is running about 4% below the same weekend last year — an expected very soft weekend is even weaker than predicted.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the second weekend movies are now headed for: The Muppets ($86 million), Hugo ($49 million), Arthur Christmas ($47 million) and The Descendants ($35 million). 

Among the second week films, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 has been downgraded ($269 million — also see complete Twilight film track below), while Happy Feet Two had been taken down again ($67 million).




December 2-4, 2011                  Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

Twilight Breaking Dawn 1  (Sum)     $16.9   -59%      $269-
The Muppets               (Dis)     $11.2   -62%      $ 86-
Hugo                      (Par)     $ 7.6   -33%      $ 49
Arthur Christmas         (Sony)     $ 7.3   -39%      $ 47 
Happy Feet Two             (WB)     $ 6.0   -55%      $ 67-
Jack and Jill            (Sony)     $ 5.5   -45%      $ 71
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 5.2   -29%      $ 35
Immortals                 (Rel)     $ 4.4   -50%      $ 82
Tower Heist               (Uni)     $ 4.1   -42%      $ 80 
Puss in Boots          (DW/Par)     $ 3.1   -59%      $144-  
J. Edgar                   (WB)     $ 2.4   -52%      $ 37

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.  

Twilight Saga Film Track            Opening   Domestic  Overseas
                                    Weekend    Total     Total

Twilight                11.21.2008   $ 69.6    $192.8    $199.8

Twilight New Moon       11.20.2009   $142.8    $296.6    $413.2

Twilight Eclipse         6.30.2010   $ 64.8    $300.5    $397.9

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a soft $75 million total Friday-Sunday, down 4% from the same calendar weekend last year.         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #48

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $ 75  none
2010  $ 78  Warrior’s Way $3   
2009  $ 91  Brothers $9.5, Armored $6.5, Everybody’s Fine $4

2008  $ 77  Punisher:War Zone $4, Cadillac Records $3
2007  $ 73  Golden Compass $26
2007-10
Avg   $ 80 

Next Weekend
 
Next weekend, New Year’s Eve (romantic comedy from Garry Marshall and Warner Brothers) and The Sitter (R-rated comedy from 20th Century Fox starring Jonah Hill) open.  These film will be compared to The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader ($24 million opening weekend) and The Tourist ($16.5 million) from the comparable weekend in 2010.

 

International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.