Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #32 of 2013 now looks like $142 million for the top 12 films, down from yesterday’s $148 million estimate but still up 6% from the average for this weekend the past few years.
Opening at 3,284 theaters Friday, Elysium from Sony grossed $11.0 million Friday and $10.8 million Saturday, now on track for a $30.1 million opening weekend (#1 as expected but below the $35.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $9,200 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years but hardly worthy of celebration). Critical sentiment is relatively strong and certainly better than the other openers this weekend (66% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 67% with top critics). Elysium is headed for $85 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,260 theaters Wednesday, We’re the Millers from Warner Brothers grossed $8.5 million Friday and $10.3 million Saturday, now headed for a $26.4 million opening weekend (comfortably above our $23.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $8,100 per theater for the weekend. With $11.5 million Wednesday-Thursday, We’re the Millers should total $38 through Sunday for the first five days. Critical sentiment is soft: 41% positive overall at RottenTomatoes but a weaker 29% positive with top critics. We’re the Millers is headed for $101 million total domestic, as this comedy will hold better in coming weeks compared to the other genres which will burn out more rapidly.
Opening at 3,702 theaters Friday, Planes from Disney grossed $8.1 million Friday and Saturday each, now on track for a $21.8 million opening weekend (well below our $27.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $5,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak: 24% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and a lame 18% positive with top critics. Planes is headed for $83 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,907 theaters Wednesday, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters from 20th Century Fox grossed $4.9 million Friday and $5.5 million Saturday, now pacing toward a $14.3 million opening weekend (under our $19.5 million forecast). The sequel is pacing toward a three-day average of $4,900 per theater for the weekend. With $8.9 million Wednesday-Thursday, the second Percy Jackson should total $23 million through Sunday for the first five days. Critical sentiment is mediocre: 34% positive overall and a somewhat better 44% positive with top critics. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters is headed for $52 million total domestic, well below the $88.8 million for Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief (released February 12, 2010).
The Wolverine has been adjusted down slightly to $136 million domestic total.
| Weekend 32: August 9-11, 2013 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Elysium | Sony | [35.5] | 30.5 | 30.1 | 11.0–10.8 | 85 | |
| We’re the Millers | WB | [23.0] | 25.5 | 26.4 | 8.5–10.3 | 101 | |
| Planes | Dis | [27.5] | 24.0 | 21.8 | 8.1–8.1 | 83 | |
| Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters | Fox | [19.5] | 15.3 | 14.3 | 4.9–5.5 | 52 | |
| 2 Guns | Uni | [13.4] | 11.0 | 11.1 | 3.4–4.6 | 75 | |
| The Smurfs 2 | Sony | [9.9] | 10.5 | 9.4 | 3.1–3.6 | 63 | |
| The Wolverine | Fox | [11.2] | 8.3 | 8.0 | 2.4–3.3 | 136 | |
| The Conjuring | WB | [7.7] | 6.5 | 6.5 | 2.1–2.7 | 144 | |
| Despicable Me 2 | Uni | [5.9] | 6.3 | 5.7 | 1.9–2.3 | 362 | |
| Grown Ups 2 | Sony | [4.5] | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.2–1.5 | 135 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $142 million total Friday-Sunday, up 6% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 6% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND #32 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2013 | $142 | Elysium $30.1, We’re the Millers $26.4, Planes $21.8, Percy Jackson 2 $14.3 | |
| 2012 | $133 | The Bourne Legacy $38.1, The Campaign $26.6, Hope Springs $14.7 | |
| 2011 | $143 | The Help $26.0, Final Destination 5 $18.0, 30 Minutes or Less $13.3, Glee 3D $6.0 | |
| 2010 | $132 | The Expendables $34.8, Eat Pray Love $23.1, Scott Pilgrim vs the World $10.6 | |
| 2009 | $125 | District 9 $37.4, Time Traveler’s Wife $18.6, The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard 5.6 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $133 | ||
Check back later for the Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.
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