The weekend is looking almost exactly like it appeared yesterday with Total Recall and especially Diary of Wimpy Kid 3 struggling to make an impact, while The Dark Knight Rises holds on at #1.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: Total Recall ($66 million) and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days ($41 million).
Second week films: The Watch ($37 million, up $5 million from last week’s initial estimate) and Step Up Revolution ($34 million, up $3 million from last weel’s estimate).
Third week films: The Dark Knight Rises ($448 million, rebounding from the $434 million forecast last week).
Fourth week films: Ice Age: Continental Drift ($156 million, up slightly from last week’s estimate).
| Weekend 31: August 3-5, 2012 | ($ millions) | ||||
| vs Last Wknd | Wknd Studio Proj. | Showbuzz Domestic Final | |||
| Dark Knight Rises | WB | -41% | 36.4 | 448 | |
| Total Recall | Sony | 26.0 | 66 | ||
| Diary of Wimpy Kid: Dog Days | Fox | 14.7 | 41 | ||
| Ice Age: Continental Drift | Fox | -37% | 8.4 | 156 | |
| The Watch | Fox | -50% | 6.3 | 37 | |
| Ted | Uni | -25% | 5.5 | 225 | |
| Step Up Revolution | Sum | -55% | 5.3 | 34 | |
| Amazing Spider-Man | Sony | -36% | 4.3 | 272 | |
| Brave | Dis | -33% | 2.9 | 232 | |
| Magic Mike | WB | -47% | 1.4 | 116 | |
| This Weekend’s Openers and Their Predecessors | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Critics Positive | Opening Weekend | Domestic Total | Overseas Total | Worldwide Total | |||
| Total Recall | 3.19.2010 | 32% | 26.0-est | 66-est | n/a | n/a | |
| Total Recall (in 1990 dollars) | 6.1.1990 | 83% | 25.5 | 119.4 | 141.9 | 261.3 | |
| (in 2012 dollars) | 48.4 | 226.4 | 269.3 | 495.9 | |||
| Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days | 8.3.2012 | 50% | 14.7-est | 41-est | n/a | n/a | |
| Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules | 3.25.2011 | 47% | 23.7 | 52.7 | 19.7 | 72.4 | |
| Diary of a Wimpy Kid | 3.19.2010 | 53% | 22.1 | 64.0 | 11.7 | 75.7 | |
| BATMAN TRACKWarner Brothers | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Critics Positive | Opening Weekend | Domestic Total | Overseas Total | Worldwide Total | |||
| The Dark Knight Rises |
7.20.2012 | 87% | 160.9 | 448-est | n/a | n/a | |
| The Dark Knight | 7.18.2008 | 94% | 158.4 | 533.3 | 468.6 | 1,001.9 | |
| Batman Begins | 6.15.2005 | 85% | 48.7 | 205.3 | 167.4 | 372.7 | |
| The Pre-Nolan Years | |||||||
| Batman and Robin | 6.20.1997 | 13% | 42.9 | 107.3 | 130.9 | 238.2 | |
| Batman Forever | 6.16.1995 | 43% | 52.8 | 184.0 | 152.5 | 336.5 | |
| Batman Returns | 6.19.1992 | 78% | 45.7 | 162.8 | 104.0 | 266.8 | |
| Batman | 6.23.1989 | 71% | 40.5 | 251.2 | 160.1 | 411.3 | |
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $114 million total Friday-Sunday, down 28% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 13% from the average for this weekend the past four years.
| ($ millions) | |||
| WEEKEND #31 | Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend | |
| 2012 | $114 | Total Recall $26, Diary Wimpy Kid Dog Days $15 | |
| 2011 | $158 | Rise of the Planet of the Apes $55, The Change-Up $13 | |
| 2010 | $123 | The Other Guys $35, Step Up 3-D $16 | |
| 2009 | $132 | G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra $55, Julie & Julia $20 | |
| 2008 | $111 | Pineapple Express $23, Sisterhood Traveling Pants 2 $11 | |
| Avg 2008-11 | $131 | ||
Next Weekend
Opening wide next weekend are The Bourne Legacy from Universal, The Campaign from Warner Brothers, and opening early on Wednesday, Hope Springs from Sony. These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year: The Help ($26.0 million opening weekend), Final Destination 5 ($18.0 million), 30 Minutes or Less ($13.3 million) and Glee: The 3D Concert Movie ($6.0 million).
International grosses will be updated later today.
About the Author
