Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #26 of 2015 now looks like $175 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, better than it looked yesterday and closer to hitting the norms for this weekend. Jurassic World and Inside Out look stronger than they appeared yesterday, while the weekends for both openers have been downgraded slightly from yesterday.
Opening at 3,442 theaters Friday, Ted 2 from Universal is now on track for a $33.0 million opening three-day weekend (well below our $58.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward an above average but not great $9,600 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is mediocre (47% positive overall and 40% positive with top critics). Ted 2 is headed for $106 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,855 theaters Friday, Max from Warner Brothers is now on track for a $12.2 million opening three-day weekend (slightly below our $13.5 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a $4,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is soft (38% positive overall and 45% positive with top critics). Max is headed for $31 million total domestic.
| Weekend 26: June 26-28, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri/ Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Jurassic World | Uni | [56.9] | 49.5 | 54.2 | 14.7/ 22.5 | 665 | |
| Inside Out | Dis | [51.1] | 50.0 | 52.1 | 14.9/ 21.1 | 325 | |
| Ted 2 | Uni | [58.0] | 34.0 | 33.0 | 13.2/ 11.2 | 106 | |
| Max | WB | [13.5] | 13.0 | 12.2 | 4.36/ 4.49 | 31 | |
| Spy | Fox | [7.4] | 6.9 | 7.8 | 2.12/ 3.40 | 110 | |
| San Andreas | WB | [5.3] | 4.8 | 5.3 | 1.44/ 2.23 | 158 | |
| Dope | OpenR | [3.1] | 2.4 | 2.9 | .84/ 1.12 | 21 | |
| Insidious Chapter 3 | Foc/Uni | [2.3] | 1.8 | 2.0 | .66/ .81 | 53 | |
| Mad Max: Fury Road | WB | [1.7] | 1.5 | 1.7 | .44/ .74 | 154 | |
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | Dis | [—] | 1.6 | 1.6 | .46/ .70 | 453 | |
| Pitch Perfect 2 | Uni | [2.0] | 1.2 | 1.4 | .45/ .61 | 188 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Jurassic World is headed for $54.2 million this weekend (down -49% from last weekend and a touch below our $56.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $665 million.
Inside Out is headed for $52.1 million this weekend (down -42% from last weekend and now a touch above our $51.1 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $325 million.
Spy is headed for $7.8 million this weekend (down -31% from last weekend and near our $7.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $110 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $175 million total Friday-Sunday, up from yesterday’s estimate for the weekend ($168 million) and now down -6% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and now up +1% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 26 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $175 | Ted 2 $33.0, Max $12.2 | |
| 2014 | $173 | Transformers: Age of Extinction $100.0 | |
| 2013 | $183 | The Heat $39.1, White House Down $24.9 | |
| 2012 | $197 | Ted $54.4, Magic Mike $39.1, TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection $25.4 | |
| 2011 | $192 | Transformers: Dark of the Moon $97.9, Larry Crowne $13.1 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $186 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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