Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #20 of 2015 now looks like $178 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, a little better than yesterday’s estimate ($172 million) and now solidly above the norm for this weekend.
Opening at 3,473 theaters Friday, Pitch Perfect 2 from Universal is now on track for a $70.3 million opening three-day weekend (well above our $53.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a hefty $20,300 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is solid (67% positive overall and 65% positive with top critics). Pitch Perfect 2 is headed for $181 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,702 theaters Friday, Mad Max: Fury Road from Warner Brothers is headed for a $44.4 million opening weekend (very near our $43.5 million forecast). The film is on track for a decent $12,000 per theater average for the weekend. Critical sentiment is nearly perfect: 98% positive overall and 98% positive with top critics). Mad Max: Fury Road is headed for $137 million total domestic.
| Weekend 20: May 15-17, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri/ Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Pitch Perfect 2 | Uni | [53.0] | 69.0 | 70.3 | 28.0/ 24.6 | 181 | |
| Mad Max: Fury Road | WB | [43.5] | 43.0 | 44.4 | 16.8/ 16.3 | 137 | |
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | Dis | [36.2] | 37.9 | 38.8 | 10.0/ 17.3 | 462 | |
| Hot Pursuit | WB | [6.3] | 5.3 | 5.8 | 1.8/ 2.4 | 32 | |
| Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 | Sony | [3.4] | 3.6 | 3.6 | .86/ 1.7 | 71 | |
| Furious 7 | Uni | [3.0] | 3.3 | 3.6 | .99/ 1.6 | 353 | |
| Age of Adaline | LG | [3.4] | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.0/ 1.3 | 43 | |
| Home | Fox/DWA | [2.2] | 2.1 | 2.7 | .53/ 1.2 | 162 | |
| Ex Machina | A24 | [2.2] | 1.8 | 2.1 | .59/ .93 | 26 | |
| Woman in Gold | Weins | [1.1] | 1.3 | 1.2 | .32/ .55 | 33 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Avengers: Age of Ultron is now headed for $38.8 million this weekend (down -50% from last weekend and above our $36.2 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $462 million.
Hot Pursuit is headed for $5.8 million this weekend (down -59% from last weekend and slightly below our $6.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $32 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $178 million total Friday-Sunday, up +16% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +5% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 20 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $178 | Pitch Perfect 2 $70.3, Mad Max: Fury Road $44.4 | |
| 2014 | $170 | Godzilla $93.2, Million Dollar Arm $10.5 | |
| 2013 | $148 | Star Trek Into Darkness $70.6 | |
| 2012 | $136 | Battleship $25.5, The Dictator $17.4, What to Expect When You’re Expecting $10.5 | |
| 2011 | $159 | Bridesmaids $26.2, Priest $15.0 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $153 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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