April 12, 2015
 

Weekend Studio Estimates 4.10-12.2015

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #15 of 2015 now looks like $129 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, only $1 million lower than yesterday’s estimate and still above the norm for this weekend but a touch below the same weekend last year.

Opening at 3,366 theaters Friday, The Longest Ride from Fox is now on track for a $13.5 million opening three-day weekend (below our $15.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a sluggish $4,000 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is weak (29% positive overall and 31% positive with top critics).  The Longest Ride is headed for $31 million total domestic.

Weekend 15: April 10-12, 2015 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri/ Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Furious 7 Uni [63.5] 60.2 60.6 18.8/ 25.3 395
Home Fox/DWA [18.0] 19.5 19.0 5.6/ 8.1 182
The Longest Ride Fox [15.5] 14.0 13.5 5.5/ 4.9 31
Get Hard WB [7.5] 8.0 8.6 2.6/ 3.6 87
Cinderella Dis [7.1] 7.4 7.2 2.3/ 3.1 207
Insurgent LG/Sum [5.9] 7.0 6.9 2.2/ 3.0 129
Woman in Gold Weins [5.1] 6.6 5.8 1.8/ 2.4 21
It Follows Rad [1.9] 2.1 2.0 .62/ .84 20

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Top Holdovers

Furious 7 is headed for $60.6 million this weekend (down -59% from last weekend and slightly below our $63.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $395 million.

Home is headed for $19.0 million this weekend (down -30% from last weekend and slightly above our $18.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $182 million.

Get Hard is headed for $8.6 million this weekend (down -34% from last weekend and somewhat above our $7.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $87 million.

Cinderella is headed for $7.2 million this weekend (down -29% from last weekend and very near our $7.1 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $207 million.

 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $129 million total Friday-Sunday, up +11% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but down -3% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 15 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2015 $129 The Longest Ride $13.5
2014 $133 Rio 2 $39.3, Oculus $12.0, Draft Day $9.8
2013 $109 42 $27.5, Scary Movie V $14.2
2012 $107 Three Stooges $17.0, Cabin in the Woods $14.7, Lockout $6.2
2011 $117 Hanna $12.4, Arthur $12.2, Soul Surfer $10.6, Your Highness $9.4
Avg 2011-14 $116

Check out our Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.