Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #8 of 2015 looks like $106 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, a little softer than it looked yesterday but still somewhat above the norms for this weekend.
Opening at 2,755 theaters Friday, McFarland, USA from Disney is on track for an $11.3 million opening three-day weekend (now slightly above our $10.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward $4,100 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is supportive (78% positive overall and 77% positive with top critics). McFarland, USA is headed for $39 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,575 theaters Friday, The DUFF from CBS Films and Lionsgate/Summit is on track for an $11.0 million opening three-day weekend (above our $7.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a still below average $4,300 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is leaning positive (61% positive overall and 64% positive with top critics). The DUFF is headed for $31 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,880 theaters Friday, Hot Tub Time Machine 2 from Paramount is on track for a $5.8 million opening three-day weekend (nowhere near our modest $12.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward an awful $2,000 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is disastrous (14% positive overall and 9% positive with top critics). Hot Tub Time Machine 2 is headed for $10 million total domestic.
| Weekend 8: February 20-22, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Fifty Shades of Grey | Foc/Uni | [26.3] | 24.1 | 23.2 | 8.0–9.0 | 170 | |
| Kingsman: The Secret Service | Fox | [19.0] | 17.7 | 17.5 | 5.3–8.0 | 112 | |
| SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | Par | [19.0] | 18.9 | 15.5 | 4.0–7.2 | 180 | |
| McFarland, USA | Dis | [10.5] | 10.4 | 11.3 | 3.6–4.5 | 39 | |
| The DUFF | CBS/LG | [7.5] | 11.1 | 11.0 | 4.3–4.3 | 31 | |
| American Sniper | WB | [10.2] | 9.8 | 9.7 | 2.7–4.6 | 361 | |
| Hot Tub Time Machine 2 | Par | [12.5] | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.3–2.2 | 10 | |
| Jupiter Ascending | WB | [4.1] | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.1–1.7 | 48 | |
| The Imitation Game | Weins | [2.7] | 2.8 | 2.6 | .75–1.2 | 93 | |
| Paddington | Weins | [3.0] | 3.0 | 2.3 | .64–1.0 | 80 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Fifty Shades of Grey is headed for $23.2 million this weekend (down -73% from last weekend and below our $26.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $170 million.
Kingsman: The Secret Service is headed for $17.5 million this weekend (down -52% from last weekend and somewhat below our $19.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $112 million.
SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water is headed for $15.5 million this weekend (down -51% from last weekend and now below our $19.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $180 million.
American Sniper is headed for $9.7 million this weekend (down -41% from last weekend and near our $10.2 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $361 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $106 million total Friday-Sunday, down from yesterday’s estimate based on Friday only ($112 million) and now up a more modest +7% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +8% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 8 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $106 | McFarland USA $11.3, The DUFF $11.0, Hot Tub Time Machine 2 $5.8 | |
| 2014 | $98 | 3 Days to Kill $12.2, Pompeii $10.3 | |
| 2013 | $88 | Snitch $13.2, Dark Skies $8.2 | |
| 2012 | $114 | Act of Valor $24.5, TP’s Good Deeds $15.6, Wanderlust $6.5, Gone $4.8 | |
| 2011 | $93 | Unknown $21.9, I Am Number Four $19.4, Big Mommas Like Father Like Son $16.3 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $99 | ||
Check later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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