February 15, 2015

Weekend Studio Estimates 2.13-15.2015

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #7 of 2015 looks like a terrific $196 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, well above the norms for this weekend and even better than it looked yesterday ($188 million estimate based on Friday’s grosses).  

Opening at 3,646 theaters Friday, Fifty Shades of Grey from Focus/ Universal is on track for an $81.7 million opening three-day weekend (even better than it looked yesterday and now well above our $67.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a very nice $22,400 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is cool at best (27% positive overall and 32% positive with top critics).  Fifty Shades of Grey is headed for $205 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,204 theaters Friday, Kingsman: The Secret Service from 20th Century Fox is on track for a $35.6 million opening three-day weekend (also above our $26.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a solid $11,100 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is reasonably supportive (71% positive overall and a 67% positive with top critics).  Kingsman: The Secret Service is headed for $107 million total domestic.

Weekend 7: February 13-15, 2015 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Fifty Shades of Grey Foc/Uni [67.5] 77.0 81.7 30.3–36.7 205
Kingsman: The Secret Service Fox [26.5] 34.0 35.6 10.5–15.5 107
SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water Par [35.0] 32.0 30.5 6.5–14.6 171
American Sniper WB [18.0] 15.5 16.4 3.8–7.9 356
Jupiter Ascending WB [8.5] 7.9 9.4 2.0–4.6 50
Seventh Son Uni [3.6] 3.0 4.2 .85–2.1 16
Paddington Weins [4.3] 4.0 4.2 .82–1.9 72
The Imitation Game Weins [3.8] 3.8 3.5 .80–1.7 90
The Wedding Ringer Sony [3.5] 2.8 3.4 .62–1.8 68
Project Almanac Par [3.2] n/a 2.7 .56–1.4 24
Black or White Rel [3.2] 2.6 2.6 .61–1.4 23

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Top Holdovers

SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water is headed for $30.5 million this weekend (down -45% from last weekend and somewhat below our $35.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $171 million.

American Sniper is headed for $16.4 million this weekend (down -29% from last weekend and somewhat below our $18.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $356 million.

Jupiter Ascending is headed for $9.4 million this weekend (down -49% from last weekend and slightly above our $8.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $50 million.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $196 million total Friday-Sunday, up +40% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +22% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 7 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2015 $196 Fifty Shades of Grey $81.7, Kingsman: Secret Service $35.6
2014 $160 About Last Night $35.6, RoboCop $21.7, Endless Love $13.3, Winter’s Tale $7.3
2013 $126 A Good Day to Die $24.8, Safe Haven $21.4, Escape from Planet Earth $15.9
2012 $143 Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance $22.1, This Means War $17.4
2011 $130 Just Go With It $30.5, Justin Bieber: Never Say Never $29.5, Gnpmeo and Juliet $25.4
Avg 2011-14 $140

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.