Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #48 of 2014 looks like $156 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down 14% the norm for Thanksgiving weekend ($180 million) and down 20% from the same weekend last year. Pretty soft.
Opening at 3,764 theaters, Penguins of Madagascar from Fox and DreamWorks Animation is on track for a $25.8 million opening three-day weekend (below our $36.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward $6,800 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). For the first five days Wednesday-Sunday, the film is headed for $36.0 million. Critical sentiment is only somewhat positive (68% positive overall and a mediocre 55% positive with top critics). Penguins of Madagascar is headed for $116 million total domestic. Look for a lower stock price in DreamWorks Animation Monday (ticker: DWA), the “studio” most sensitive to weak box office performance.
Opening at 3,375 theaters, Horrible Bosses 2 from Warner Brothers is on track for a $15.7 million opening three-day weekend (well below our $25.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward $4,700 per theater for the weekend. The film is headed for a dismal $23.0 million for the first five days Wednesday-Sunday. Critical sentiment is not supportive (35% positive overall and 24% positive with top critics). Horrible Bosses 2 is headed for $64 million total domestic.
Expanding to 802 theaters, The Theory of Everything from Focus and Universal is on track for a $5.1 million first wide three-day weekend (above our $3.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward $6,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is very positive (83% positive overall and 86% positive with top critics). To date the film has grossed $9.6 million domestic, since its platform release on 11.7.2014. Theory of Everything is headed for $29 million total domestic.
| Weekend 48: November 28-30, 2014 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Five-Day Studio Estimate | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 | LG/Sum | [53.8] | 56.3 | 56.9 | 82.7 | 366 | |
| Penguins of Madagascar | FOX/DWA | [36.5] | 26.9 | 25.8 | 36.0 | 116 | |
| Big Hero 6 | Dis | [17.5] | 19.4 | 18.8 | 26.0 | 219 | |
| Interstellar | Par | [12.1] | 15.9 | 15.8 | 22.0 | 189 | |
| Horrible Bosses 2 | WB | [25.0] | 15.5 | 15.7 | 23.0 | 64 | |
| Dumb and Dumber To | Uni | [8.0] | 8.4 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 89 | |
| Theory of Everything | Foc/Uni | [3.5] | 5.1 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 29 | |
| Gone Girl | Fox | [2.4] | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 166 | |
| Birdman | FoxS | [2.0] | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 26 | |
| St. Vincent | Weins | [1.8] | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 46 | |
| Beyond the Lights | Rel | [—] | n/a | 1.6 | 2.2 | 18 | |
| Fury | Sony | [—] | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 85 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 is headed for $56.9 million this weekend (down 53% from last weekend and slightly above our $53.8 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Mockingjay Part 1 has been adjusted to $366 million.
Big Hero 6 is headed for $18.8 million this weekend (down 7% from last weekend and above our $17.5 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Big Hero 6 has been adjusted to $219 million.
Interstellar is headed for $15.8 million this weekend (up 3% from last weekend and well above our $12.1 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Interstellar has been adjusted to $189 million.
Dumb and Dumber To is headed for $8.3 million this weekend (down 41% from last weekend and near our $8.0 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Dumb and Dumber To has been adjusted to $89 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $156 million total Friday-Sunday, down 14% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 20% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 48 (or 47 in * years) | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $156 | Penguins of Madagascar $25.8, Horrible Bosses 2 $15.7 | |
| 2013 | $195 | Frozen 3D $67.4, Homefront $6.9, The Book Thief $4.9 | |
| 2012* | $200 | Rise of the Guardians $23.8, Life of Pi $22.5, Red Dawn $14.3 | |
| 2011* | $155 | The Muppets $29.2, Arthur Christmas $12.1, Hugo $11.4 | |
| 2010* | $171 | Tangled $48.8, Burlesquw $11.9, Love and Other Drugs $9.7 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $180 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard as well as the International Box Office report.
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