Articles

January 25, 2015
 

Weekend Studio Estimates 1.23-25.2015

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #4 of 2015 now looks like $142 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, well above the norm for the fourth weekend of the year, which usually struggles to get above $100 million.  (See complete weekend track below.)  All credit goes to American Sniper, which is truly extraordinary.  As for the three openers, they range from positively ordinary to completely feckless.  

Opening at 2,602 theaters Friday, The Boy Next Door from Universal is now on track for a $15.0 million opening three-day weekend (slightly above our $14.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a nearly average $5,800 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is harsh (13% positive overall and a similar 14% positive with top critics). The Boy Next Door is headed for $38 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,020 theaters Friday, Strange Magic from Disney is on track for a $5.5 million opening three-day weekend (well under our $9.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a DOA $1,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is hateful for this animated film (11% positive overall and a rough 8% positive with top critics).  Strange Magic is headed for $10 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,648 theaters Friday, Mortdecai from Lionsgate/Summit is on track for a $4.1 million opening three-day weekend (well below our $9.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a similarly deadly $1,550 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is also harsh, making it a trifecta of critical scorn this weekend (13% positive overall and 18% positive with top critics). Mortdecai is headed for $7 million total domestic.

Weekend 4: January 23-25, 2015 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
American Sniper WB [48.5] 65.0 64.4 18.3–28.8 375
The Boy Next Door Uni [14.5] 15.7 15.0 5.7–5.8 38
Paddington Weins [12.3] 12.4 12.4 2.6–5.9 79
The Wedding Ringer Sony [11.3] 10.9 11.6 3.3–5.2 67
Taken 3 Fox [7.4] 7.5 7.6 2.1–3.5 90
The Imitation Game Weins [5.2] 7.5 7.1 1.9–3.3 79
Selma Par [5.6] 5.5 5.5 1.5–2.5 63
Strange Magic Dis [9.0] 5.0 5.5 1.3–2.6 10
Mortdecai LG/Sum [9.5] 4.5 4.1 1.5–1.7 7
Into the Woods Dis [4.2] 4.2 3.9 .96–1.8 135

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Top Holdovers

American Sniper is headed for $64.4 million this weekend (down -28% from last weekend but way above our $48.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $375 million.

Paddington is headed for $12.4 million this weekend (down -35% from last weekend and very close to our $12.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $79 million.

The Wedding Ringer is headed for $11.6 million this weekend (down -44% from last weekend and also near our $11.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $67 million.

 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $142 million total Friday-Sunday, very close to yesterday’s estimate ($143 million) and up a huge +51% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +45% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 4 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2015 $142 Boy Next Door $15.0, Strange Magic $5.5, Mortdecai $4.1
2014 $98 I, Frankenstein $8.6
2013 $88 Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $19.7, Parker $7.0, Movie 43 $4.8
2012 $98 The Grey $19.7, One for the Money $11.5, Man on a Ledge $8.0
2011 $92 No Strings Attached $19.7
Avg 2011-14 $94

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.