Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #3 of 2015 looks like $185 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, even better than the estimate yesterday ($172 million), way up from the norm for this weekend and setting a new record for the third weekend in January, breaking last year’s brief record (see track below for the weekend). The box office is on fire, driven by American Sniper, which is headed for a record January opening.
Opening at 3,555 theaters Friday, American Sniper from Warner Brothers is on track for a mammoth $90.2 million opening three-day weekend (just “a bit” above our $28.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week — American Beat that forecast in Friday night alone). The film is pacing toward a truly impressive $25,400 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is positive (73% positive overall and a more noteworthy 83% positive with top critics). American Sniper is headed for $235 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,003 theaters Friday, The Wedding Ringer from Sony/ Screen Gems is on track for a $21.0 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $24.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a still-above average $6,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is soft (34% positive overall and 25% positive with top critics) but a star-driven comedy is much less dependent on critical opinion. Wedding Ringer is headed for $69 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,303 theaters Friday, Paddington from Weinstein Company is on track for an $19.3 million opening three-day weekend (slightly above our $17.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward $5,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is widely positive (98% positive overall and a universal 100% positive with top critics),and as a family film, it should play a long time in theaters. Paddington is headed for $90 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,567 theaters Friday, Blackhat from Universal is on track for a meager $4.0 million opening three-day weekend (well below our $10.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward an awful $1,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is soft (32% positive overall and 32% positive with top critics). Blackhat is headed for $7 million total domestic.
| Weekend 3: January 16-18, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| American Sniper | WB | [28.0] | 76.0 | 90.2 | 30.5–34.7 | 235 | |
| The Wedding Ringer | Sony | [24.0] | 20.5 | 21.0 | 7.0–8.4 | 69 | |
| Paddington | Weins | [17.0] | 18.7 | 19.3 | 4.7–8.4 | 90 | |
| Taken 3 | Fox | [17.4] | 13.8 | 14.1 | 4.3–6.6 | 92 | |
| Selma | Par | [10.0] | 8.9 | 8.3 | 2.4–3.7 | 52 | |
| The Imitation Game | Weins | [5.8] | 7.0 | 7.2 | 1.9–3.2 | 65 | |
| Into the Woods | Dis | [6.1] | 7.7 | 6.5 | 1.7–3.0 | 133 | |
| The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies | WB | [4.8] | 4.9 | 4.9 | 1.2–2.2 | 267 | |
| Unbroken | Uni | [4.4] | 4.2 | 4.3 | 1.2–1.9 | 123 | |
| Blackhat | Uni | [10.5] | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.4–1.6 | 7 | |
| Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb | Fox | [—] | 3.5 | 3.8 | .85–1.7 | 118 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Taken 3 is headed for $14.1 million this weekend (down -64% from last weekend and below our $17.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $92 million.
Selma is headed for $8.3 million this weekend (down -27% from last weekend and below our $10.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $52 million.
The Imitation Game is headed for $7.2 million this weekend (even with last weekend and somewhat above our $6.1 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $65 million.
Into the Woods is headed for $6.5 million this weekend (down -32% from last weekend and near our $6.1 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $133 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $185 million total Friday-Sunday, up an enormous +58% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +20% from the same weekend last year, which itself was record for the third weekend of the year.
| WEEKEND 3 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $185 | American Sniper $90.2, Wedding Ringer $21.0, Paddington $19.3 | |
| 2014 | $154 | Ride Along $41.2, The Nut Job $20.6, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit $17.2 | |
| 2013 | $117 | Mama $28.4, Broken City $8.3, The Last Stand $6.3 | |
| 2012 | $110 | Underworld Awakening $25.3, Red Tails $18.8, Extremely Loud…Close $10.0 | |
| 2011 | $89 | Green Hornet $33.5, The Dilemma $17.8 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $118 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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