The 40th weekend of the year is looking like a good $107 million for the top 12 films, way down from this weekend last year (boosted by Taken 2) but up 9% from the multi-year average for this weekend.
Opening at over 3,450 theaters Friday (way above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Gravity from Warner Brothers should average $11,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $39.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews are nearly universally supportive at RottenTomatoes: 97% positive overall. Gravity should be on track for $140 million domestic with exceptionally long playability.
Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday, Runner Runner from 20th Century Fox should average $4,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $13.5 million opening three-day weekend). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are a brutal 22% positive. Runner Runner should be headed for $31 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND October 4-6, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Gravity | WB | PG13 | 97% | 39.5 | 140 | |
| Runner Runner | Fox | R | 22% | 13.5 | 31 | |
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 will be the only holdover doing significant business.
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RETURNING FILMS October 4-6, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs | Sony | -36% | 22.5 | 108 | |
| Prisoners | WB | -49% | 5.8 | 69 | |
| Rush | Uni | -49% | 5.3 | 39 | |
| Don Jon | Rel | -50% | 4.5 | 34 | |
| Baggage Claim | Fox | -59% | 3.9 | 22 | |
| Insidious Chapter 2 | FilmDis | -47% | 3.6 | 84 | |
| Instructions Not Included | LG/Sum | -35% | 2.2 | 45 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $99 million total, ranking 43rd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $133 million (while 2011 was $85 million and 2010 was $81 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a pretty good $107 million, up 9% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but down 19% from the comparable weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
10.5.2012
Taken 2 FOX PG13 Liam Neeson Maggie Grace
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $42 Actual: $50
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $133 Actual: $140
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $236
Frankenweenie DIS PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $44 Actual: $35
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $32
10.7.2011
Real Steel DW/DIS PG13 Hugh Jackman Evangeline Lilly
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $26 Actual: $27
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $93 Actual: $85
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $210
Ides of March SONY R George Clooney Ryan Gosling
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $44 Actual: $41
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $34
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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