WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS October 12-14

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This weekend is poised to be the third solidly up weekend in a row.  Five films open this weekend, with four boasting positive critical acclaim and two in rave territory.  None looks to be a big commercial hit, but the total business for the openers combined with very good returning box office for Taken 2 and Hotel Transylvania makes the weekend more than viable.  

Opening at about 3,250 theaters Friday, Argo from Warner Brothers should average a just okay $5,100 per theater (for a $16.5 million opening weekend).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Critics are nearly universally enthusiastic (93% positive currently at RottenTomatoes), suggesting the older-skewing film could play reasonably well.  Argo should finish with $57 million domestic.

Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday, Sinister from Summit should average a decent $6,500 per theater (for a $16.2 million opening weekend).  With 76% positive reviews so far (pretty good for a horror film), Sinister should end its run with $47 million domestic.

Kevin James storms into about 3,000 theaters Friday in Here Comes the Boom from Sony.  We don’t see an audience stampede: only $4,000 per theater for a $12.0 million opening weekend on its way to $39 million domestic.

Seven Psychopaths should open with $4,600 per theater at a more limited 1,500 theaters ($6.8 million opening weekend, an okay showing for struggling CBS Films).  The reviews are orgasmic (95% positive so far), but the dark comedy should ultimately play to a fairly narrow $30 million domestic.

Atlas Shrugged Part II will open an close quickly. Can we all agree, no more Ayn Rand films? Please.

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Taken 2 will have the steepest drop among the holdovers, but its opening weekend base is so high, it should easily hold on to the #1 spot.  The other returning films look to drop a more reasonable percentage under 40%.  

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $102 million total, ranking 38th of 52 weeks.  Last year, this weekend’s total was $77 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $120 million).  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $122 million, up 19% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and up 58% from last year’s atypically low total.  This will be the third significantly up weekend in a row if the forecast holds.  

This Weekend Last Two Years

10.14.2011

Footloose PAR PG13 Julianne Hough Andie MacDowell
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $59 Actual: $52
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $11

The Thing UNI R Joel Edgerton Mary Elizabeth
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $17
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $11

The Big Year FOX PG Jack Black Steve Martin
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $9 Actual: $6
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

10.15.2010

Jackass 3-D PAR R Johnny Knoxville
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $29 Actual: $50
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $138 Actual: $117
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $53

Red SUMMIT PG13 Bruce Willis Morgan Freeman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $84 Actual: $90
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $96

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

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