The 48th weekend of the year is looking like $164 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, well below the normal pace for a normal Thanksgiving weekend.
Opening at 3,742 theaters Wednesday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Frozen (3D) from Disney should average $12,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $45.5 million opening Friday-Sunday and $66 million for the Wednesday-Sunday period). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews are quite positive at RottenTomatoes: 87% positive so far. Frozen is on track for $189 million domestic.
Opening at 1,516 theaters Wednesday, Black Nativity from Fox Searchlight should average a somewhat above par $5,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $9.1 million opening three-day weekend and $13 million from Wednesday-Sunday). Early reviews are mixed: 52% positive so far. Black Nativity is on track for $34 million domestic.
Opening at around 2,572 theaters Wednesday, Homefront from Open Road Films should average a sub-par $3,000 per theater for the weekend (for a $7.8 million opening three-day weekend and $11 million from Wednesday-Sunday). Early reviews are soft: only 34% positive so far. Homefront is on track for $22 million domestic and weak playability.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND Nov 29-Dec 1, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Frozen 3D | Dis | PG | 87% | 45.5 | 189 | |
| Black Nativity | Fox S | PG | 52% | 9.1 | 34 | |
| Homefront | OpenRoad | R | 34% | 7.8 | 22 | |
| Philomena | Weins | PG13 | 92% | 3.2 | 21 | |
| The Book Thief | Fox | PG13 | 48% | 3.2 | 15 | |
| Oldboy | FilmDis | R | 47% | 2.5 | 9 | |
Hunger Games: Catching Fire will remain the #1 film weekend. Despite a somewhat weak -62% drop in its second weekend, continued strong midweek business should keep the film on pace for $400 million total domestic.
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RETURNING FILMS Nov 29-Dec 1, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| The Hunger Games: Catching Fire | LG/Sum | -62% | 59.5 | 400 | |
| Thor: The Dark World | Dis | -29% | 10.2 | 205 | |
| Best Man Holiday | Uni | -26% | 9.3 | 80 | |
| Last Vegas | CBS | -15% | 3.7 | 65 | |
| Free Birds | Rel | -33% | 3.6 | 58 | |
| Gravity | WB | -22% | 2.5 | 260 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in Thanksgiving weekend have averaged $176 million total, ranking 5th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $200 million (while 2011 was $155 million and 2010 was $171 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $164 million, down 7% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down 18% from the comparable weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
11.23.2012
Rise of the Guardians PAR/ DW PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $29 Actual: $24
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $82 Actual: $103
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $200
Life of Pi FOX PG Suraj Sharma
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $82 Actual: $125
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $484
Red Dawn FILMDIS PG13 Josh Hutcherson Chris Hemsworth
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $45
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
11.25.2011
The Muppets DIS PG Jason Segel Amy Adams
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $36 Actual: $29
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $84 Actual: $88
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $70
Arthur Christmas SONY PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $47 Actual: $46
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $101
Hugo PAR PG Sacha Baron Cohen Richard Griffiths
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $49 Actual: $74
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $111
The Descendants FOX R George Clooney Judy Greer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $83
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $93
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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