This weekend is looking like it will be about 12% below the comparable weekend the last few years (about $106 million for the top 12 films). Wreck-It-Ralph should play well to the family crowd, while Flight will be a moderate success at best, and Man with the Iron Fists is destined for an early exit from movie theaters.
Opening at around 3,600 theaters Friday, Wreck-It Ralph from Disney (but not Pixar) should average about $11,600 per theater (for a $42.0 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Critics are very receptive so far (87% positive at RottenTomatoes). The family film should wind up with about $152 million domestic.
Opening at around 1,800 theaters, Flight from Paramount and Robert Zemeckis should average a decent $9,400 per theater (for a $16.8 million opening weekend). The above average gross per theater is mitigated by its below average theater count. (Among films opening at more than 400 theaters, the average film opens at 2,914 theaters.) Also given a preliminary seal of approval by critics (84% positive so far), Flight should continue on to about $57 million domestic.
Finally, opening at about 1,800 theaters, The Man with the Iron Fists from Universal should average a weak $3,900 per theater (a $7.2 million opening weekend). Look for the Russell Crowe martial arts films to end with about $17 million domestic.
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| November 2-4, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| Wreck-It Ralph | Dis | PG | 87% | 42.0 | 152 | |
| Flight | Par | R | 84% | 16.8 | 57 | |
| Man with the Iron Fists | Uni | R | n/a | 7.2 | 17 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Argo should have another moderate decline and lead the crop of holdovers this weekend.
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| November 2-4, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| Argo | WB | -26% | 8.9 | 96 | |
| Hotel Transylvania | Sony/Col | -42% | 5.5 | 153 | |
| Cloud Atlas | WB | -46% | 5.2 | 32 | |
| Taken 2 | Fox | -40% | 4.7 | 132 | |
| Silent Hill | Open Road | -56% | 3.6 | 11 | |
| Paranormal Activity 4 | Par | -59% | 3.5 | 53 | |
| Here Comes the Boom | Sony | -37% | 3.3 | 42 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $120 million total, ranking 27th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $104 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $143 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a fairly soft $106 million, down 12% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and up a small 3% from last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
11.4.2011
Tower Heist UNI PG13 Ben Stiller Eddie Murphy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $30 Actual: $24
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $76 Actual: $78
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $75
A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas WB R Kal Penn John Cho
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
11.5.2010
Megamind PAR/ DW PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $51 Actual: $46
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $163 Actual: $148
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $173
Due Date WB R Robert Downey Jr Zach Galifianakis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $33 Actual: $33
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $94 Actual: $100
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $111
For Colored Girls LG R Kimberly Elise Janet Jackson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $21 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $42 Actual: $38
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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