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November 13, 2013
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions NOVEMBER 15-17

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The 46th weekend of the year is looking like $115 million for the top 12 films, around 50% below this weekend the last few years.  Usually this weekend is a big warm-up to the long Thanksgiving weekend the following week, but this year Thanksgiving falls later than normal on the calendar relatively speaking, leaving this weekend somewhat adrift.

Opening at over 2,000 theaters Friday (well under the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Best Man Holiday from Universal should average a decent $10,700 per theater for the weekend (for a $21.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews are positive at RottenTomatoes: 69% positive so far. Best Man Holiday is on track for $75 million domestic.

 

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

November 15-17, 2013

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Best Man Holiday Uni R 69% 21.5 75
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

 

Even with a second weekend drop of over -50%, Thor: The Dark World will remain #1 with around $40 million.

 

RETURNING FILMS

November 15-17, 2013

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Thor: The Dark World Dis -53% 40.2 201
Free Birds Rel -26% 8.2 56
Last Vegas CBS -27% 8.1 61
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Par -35% 7.4 111
Gravity WB -26% 6.3 259
12 Years a Slave Fox S -12% 5.9 41
Ender’s Game LG/Sum -42% 5.9 64
Captain Phillips Sony -25% 4.3 107

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $223 million total, ranking 1st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $242 million (while 2011 was $215 million and 2010 was $186 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $115 million, down 48% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down 52% from the comparable weekend last year.  The reason this weekend looks so anemic is really a quirk of the calendar.  Usually the weekend before Thanksgiving falls on the 46th weekend, but this year Thanksgiving is two weeks away because of the way the calendar falls.  This year, weekend #47 (next weekend) will be the weekend before Thanksgiving.  So this weekend is an odd kind of orphan weekend, with little in the way of new product.  These comparison points will be much more applicable next weekend.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years

11.16.2012

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 SUMMIT PG13 Kristen Stewart Robert Pattinson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $147 Actual: $141
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $318 Actual: $292
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $537

Lincoln DIS PG13 Daniel Day-Lewis Sally Field
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $142 Actual: $182
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $93

11.18.2011

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 SUMMIT PG13 Robert Pattinson Kristen Stewart
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $149 Actual: $138
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $303 Actual: $281
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $424

Happy Feet Two WB PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $40 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $78 Actual: $64
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $86

 

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.