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Adam Sandler opens Jack and Jill this weekend, and it will be an uphill battle for it to displace Puss in Boots from the top of the box office. Immortals will be challenging Jack and Jill for the second spot on the chart. Box office volume for the weekend will probably be up around 6% over the same weekend last year.
Also at about 3,000 theaters, Immortals from Relativity should average a similar $7,400 per theater (for $22.5 million this weekend). The R-rated fantasy action film has not been released for reviews. This movie is probably headed for around $60 million domestically.
At about 1,900 theaters, J. Edgar from Warner Brothers should average a fairly soft $6,300 per theater (for $12.0 million this weekend). The R-rated historical drama is running at only 42% positive reviews, far lower than Clint Eastwood and Warners would expect. This movie is probably headed for around $35 million domestically.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
November 11-13 Positive Weekend Total*
Jack and Jill Sony PG n/a $22.5 $ 70
Immortals Rel R n/a $22.5 $ 60
J. Edgar WB R 42% $12.0 $ 35
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The third weekend of Puss in Boots should be a very good $25 million, enough to stay at #1.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
November 11-13 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Puss in Boots DW/Par -24% $25.0 $170
Tower Heist Uni -46% $13.0 $ 85
A Very Harold & Kumar WB -55% $ 6.0 $ 44
In Time Fox -43% $ 4.5 $ 39
Paranormal Activity 3 Par -55% $ 4.0 $113
Footloose Par -28% $ 3.2 $ 55
Real Steel Sony -37% $ 2.2 $ 88
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $118 million total, ranking 28th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $112 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $129 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $118 million, up 6% from this weekend last year and even with the four-year average for this weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday’s early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.
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