Articles

May 3, 2012
 

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS May 4-6

Weekend #18 of 2012 (the first weekend of May and the unofficial start of the summer movie season) looks like it will be about $214 million for the top 12 films, up 38% from last year’s comparable weekend and up 46% from the four-year average for this weekend.  It’s all about Marvel’s The Avengers.           

Opening at an estimated 4,200 theaters, Marvel’s The Avengers from Disney should average an awesome $39,200 per theater (for $165 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Other recent releases in this league are The Hunger Games with a $36,871 per theater opening weekend, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 with $38,672, and The Dark Knight at $36,282.  Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a nearly universal 94% positive.  The Avengers is on track for a preliminary $475 million domestic.            


If The Avengers opens with $165 million this weekend, it would be the second biggest of all time, just behind $169.2 million for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (at 4,375 theaters July 15-17, 2011).  Next on the list are The Dark Knight at $158.4 million (at 4,366 theaters July 18-20, 2008), The Hunger Games at $152.5 million (at 4,137 theaters March 23-25, 2012) and Spider-Man 3 at $151.1 million (at 4,252 theaters May 4-6, 2007, averaging $35,540 per theater).               
                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
May 4-6                          Positive   Weekend   Total*

The Avengers            Dis  PG13   94%      $165     $475

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The rest of the weekend chart will be filled with holdovers huddled around $5 million for the weekend, with second place Think Like a Man struggling to stay above $10 million.

 

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
May 4-6                         vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
 
Think Like a Man         Sony     -49%      $ 9.0     $104
Pirates! Band of Misfits Sony     -42%      $ 6.5     $ 41
The Hunger Games         LG       -42%      $ 6.3     $399 
Five-Year Engagement     Uni      -47%      $ 5.7     $ 35
The Lucky One            WB       -50%      $ 5.4     $ 62 
Safe                     LG       -56%      $ 3.5     $ 25
The Raven                Rel      -60%      $ 3.0     $ 18
Chimpanzee               Dis      -47%      $ 2.8     $ 33
Three Stooges            Fox      -53%      $ 2.5     $ 48

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $147 million total, ranking 15th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend’s total was $155 million, while the same weekend in 2010 was $171 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a stellar $214 million, up 38% from this weekend last year and up 46% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years.             

This Weekend Last Two Years

5/6/11
 Thor Par PG13 Chris Hemsworth Natalie Portman 
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $68  Actual: $66
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $206  Actual: $181
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $268
 Something Borrowed WB PG13 Ginnifer Goodwin Kate Hudson  
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $14
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38  Actual: $39
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $21
 Jumping the Broom Sony PG13 Angela Bassett Paula Patton   
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10  Actual: $15
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $42  Actual: $37
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $0
  
5/7/10
 Iron Man 2 Par PG13 Robert Downey Jr Gwyneth Paltrow 
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $155  Actual: $128
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $327  Actual: $312
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $310
 Babies Uni PG  
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3  Actual: $2
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $9  Actual: $7
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $2
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

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About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.