Iron Man 3 will push the 18th weekend of the year to well over $210 million for the top 12 films, fully 19% better than the average for the comparable weekends recently but still 15% below the same weekend last year, when The Avengers exploded.
Opening at over 4,000 theaters Friday (a very high theater count), Iron Man 3 from Disney should average a terrific $43,000 per theater for the weekend (for a $172 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are solidly positive: 85% positive reviews (not as strong as Iron Man‘s reviews but better than Iron Man 2‘s). Iron Man 3 should be on course for $370 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND May 3-5, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Iron Man 3 | Dis | PG13 | 85% | 172 | 370 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Compared to the first two Iron Man films, we expect the opening weekend to continue to grow, and the total domestic gross should build after last year’s additional exposure in The Avengers. Overseas will probably be around $500 million, pushing the worldwide gross to near $900 million.
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Previous IRON MAN Films |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Opening Weekend | Domestic Total | Overseas Total | ||||||
| Iron Man 2 | Par | 5.7.2010 | PG13 | 73% | 122.4 | 312.4 | 311.5 | |
| Iron Man | Par | 5.2.2008 | PG13 | 93% | 98.6 | 318.4 | 266.7 | |
It’s all about Iron Man this weekend. Nothing else above the significant $10 million weekend benchmark.
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RETURNING FILMS May 3-5, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Pain and Gain | Par | -46% | 8.9 | 59 | |
| Oblivion | Uni | -51% | 8.1 | 106 | |
| 42 | WB | -38% | 6.6 | 99 | |
| The Croods | Fox | -33% | 4.5 | 178 | |
| The Big Wedding | LG | -46% | 4.1 | 16 | |
| G.I. Joe: Retaliation | Par | -51% | 1.8 | 126 | |
| Place Beyond the Pines | Focus | -44% | 1.5 | 29 | |
| Scary Movie V | Weins | -56% | 1.5 | 30 | |
| Olympus Has Fallen | FilmDis | -48% | 1.5 | 101 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $180 million total, ranking 4th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $250 million, courtesy of The Avengers and its $207.4 million opening weekend (while 2011 was $155 million and 2010 was $171 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $213 million, up 19% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but down 15% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
5.4.2012
Marvel’s The Avengers DIS PG13 Robert Downey Jr Scarlett Johansson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $165 Actual: $207
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $624 Actual: $623
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $888
5.6.2011
Thor PAR PG13 Chris Hemsworth Natalie Portman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $68 Actual: $66
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $206 Actual: $181
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $268
Something Borrowed WB PG13 Ginnifer Goodwin Kate Hudson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $39
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21
Jumping the Broom SONY PG13 Angela Bassett Paula Patton
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $15
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $42 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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