Weekend #18 of 2014 is looking like a relatively soft $139 million for the top 12 films, 28% below the typical volume for this weekend the past few years ($192 million).
Opening at over 4,000 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Amazing Spider-Man 2 from Sony should average $21,400 per theater for the weekend (for an $85.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not exactly enthusiastic: 63% positive so far generally but only 35% positive with top-tier critics. Amazing Spider-Man 2 is on track for around $235 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $520 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $755 million (very close to the last Spider-Man, with larger overseas grosses offsetting domestic declines from any comic fatigue).
The previous Andrew Garfield outing, The Amazing Spider Man (released July 3, 2012), grossed $752.2 million worldwide ($262.0 million domestic and $490.2 million overseas). The Tobey Maguire Spider-Man series peaked at $890.9 million worldwide for Spider-Man 3 (May 4, 2007 with $336.5 million domestic and $554.3 million overseas), followed by $821.7 million worldwide for Spider-Man (May 3, 2002 with $403.7 million domestic and $418.0 million overseas) and “only” $783.8 million worldwide for Spider-Man 2 (June 30, 2004 with $373.6 million domestic and $410.2 million overseas).
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND May 2-4, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| The Amazing Spider-Man 2 | Sony | PG13 | 63% | 85.5 | 235 | |
Among the holdovers, The Other Woman is now the sole movie over $10 million this weekend, although Heaven Is for Real is knocking on the door of that threshold.
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RETURNING FILMS May 2-4, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| The Other Woman | Fox | -46% | 13.3 | 78 | |
| Heaven Is for Real | Sony | -37% | 9.0 | 93 | |
| Captain America: The Winter Soldier | Dis | -49% | 8.3 | 261 | |
| Rio 2 | Fox | -46% | 7.5 | 132 | |
| Brick Mansions | Rel | -61% | 3.7 | 25 | |
| Bears | Dis | -41% | 2.2 | 24 | |
| Divergent | WB | -45% | 2.0 | 150 | |
| Transcendence | WB | -60% | 1.7 | 22 | |
| Draft Day | LG/Sum | -46% | 1.5 | 32 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $192 million total, ranking 3rd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $211 million (while 2012 was $250 million, 2011 was $155 million and 2010 was $171 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a relatively puny $139 million, 28% below the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and 34% above the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
5.3.2013
Iron Man 3 Dis PG13 Robert Downey Jr Gwyneth Paltrow
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $158 Actual: $174
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $445 Actual: $409
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $806
Mud Road PG13 Matthew McConaughey Sam Shepard
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $0 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $21 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
5.4.2012
Marvel’s The Avengers Dis PG13 Robert Downey Jr Scarlett Johansson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $162 Actual: $207
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $624 Actual: $623
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $888
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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