Weekend #20 of 2014 is looking like a solid $156 million for the top 12 films, 7% above the norm for this mid-May weekend.
Opening at over 3,800 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Godzilla from Warner Brothers should average $19,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $74.0 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are strong: 86% positive so far. Godzilla is on track for around $215 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $400 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $615 million.
Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday, Million Dollar Arm from Disney should average a ho-hum $4,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $14.5 million opening weekend). Critical sentiment is fairly positive: 58% positive so far. Million Dollar Arm is on track for around $45 million domestic, with a potential for maybe $20 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $65 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND May 16-18, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Godzilla | WB | PG13 | 86% | 74.0 | 215 | |
| Million Dollar Arm | Dis | PG | 58% | 14.5 | 45 | |
Among the holdovers, Neighbors and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 are generating significant business, providing significant support to Godzilla for the weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS May 16-18, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Neighbors | Uni | -45% | 27.0 | 163 | |
| The Amazing Spider-Man 2 | Sony | -54% | 16.3 | 225 | |
| The Other Woman | Fox | -41% | 5.7 | 84 | |
| Heaven Is for Real | Sony | -35% | 4.9 | 93 | |
| Captain America: The Winter Soldier | Dis | -43% | 3.3 | 259 | |
| Rio 2 | Fox | -38% | 3.1 | 125 | |
| Moms’ Night Out | Sony | -49% | 2.2 | 7 | |
| Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return | Clar | -46% | 2.0 | 5 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $146 million total, ranking 15th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $148 million (while 2012 was $136 million, 2011 was $159 million and 2010 was $143 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a pretty good $156 million, 7% above the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and 5% above the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
5.17.2013
Star Trek Into Darkness Par PG13 Chris Pine Zachary Quinto
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $87 Actual: $71
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $244 Actual: $229
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $239
5.18.2012
Battleship UNI PG13 Taylor Kitsch Rihanna
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $42 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $68 Actual: $65
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $238
The Dictator PAR R Sacha Baron Cohen Anna Faris
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $67 Actual: $60
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $118
What to Expect When You’re Expecting LG PG13 Cameron Diaz Jennifer Lopez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $41
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $43
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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