Bridesmaids and Priest to open at decent levels, but Thor will continue to lead the box office this weekend. Fast Five will continue to hang around the Top 3.
Opening at over 2,700 theaters, Bridesmaids should average a decent $7,300 per theater (for almost $20 million total). Priest should average $6,100 at around 2,800 theaters (between $17 and $18 million). Bridesmaids is receiving very good critical notices and has the potential for strong word of mouth. This could turn a $75 million estimated final domestic number into closer to $100 million. Priest looks like it will finish with $40 million or less.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
May 13-15 Positive Weekend Total*
.
Bridesmaids Uni R 90% $19.5 $ 75
Priest Sony PG13 21% $17.5 $ 40
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Thor is looking like it will stay in a comfortable #1 position, while Fast Five will challenge Priest for third place or possibly second place if Bridesmaids stumble out of the gate.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
Thor Par -51% $33.5 $185
Fast Five Uni -49% $16.5 $185
Jumping the Broom Sony -43% $ 9 $ 57
Something Borrowed WB -43% $ 8 $ 57
Rio Fox -35% $ 5.5 $150
Water for Elephants Fox -38% $ 4 $ 57
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $140 million total, ranking 17th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $131 million, and May 15-17, 2009 was also $131 million. This weekend is looking like $120 million: another moderately down weekend (unless Priest or more likely Bridesmaids exceeds expectations and catches fire).
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up (based on Friday’s actual numbers), on Sunday we will have studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have a complete wrap-up based on the actual full-weekend numbers.
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