Articles

March 27, 2013
 

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS March 29-31

The 13th weekend of 2013 looks like it will be even with the pace for the comparable weekend the past few years.  The top 12 films Friday-Sunday should total about $144 million.

Opening at a very high 3,719 theaters Thursday, G.I. Joe: Retaliation from Paramount should average a solid $10,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $38 million opening weekend).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.]  Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are mediocre (42% positive reviews so far).  Retaliation should be on course for $125 million domestic (below the $150.2 million domestic total for G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra in August 2009).

Opening at approximately 2,000 theaters Friday, Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor from Lionsgate should average a good $8,700 per theater for the weekend (for a $17.5 million opening weekend).  No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes.  Temptation is on track for about $45 million domestic (slightly above the $35 million for the last non-Madea Tyler Perry film Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds in February 2012).

Opening at a slightly above average 3,200 theaters Friday, The Host from Open Road Films should average a soft $4,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $14.5 million opening weekend).  No critical support ahead: only 20% positive in early reviews.  The Host is on track for about $31 million domestic.

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND 

March 29-31, 2013

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
G.I. Joe Retaliation Par PG13 42% 38.0 125
Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor LG PG13 n/a 17.5 45
The Host OpenRoad PG13 20% 14.5 31

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

 

Now there are three holdovers headed for well above $10 million, with The Croods near $30 million for its second weekend.  It’s been a while since even that much bench strength has helped a weekend along.    

RETURNING FILMS

March 29-31, 2013

 Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
The Croods DW/Fox -36% 28.1 155
Olympus Has Fallen FilmDis -48% 15.8 88
Oz the Great and Powerful Dis -41% 12.7 235
The Call Sony -49% 4.6 51
Admission Foc/Uni -40% 3.7 18
Incredible Burt Wonderstone WB -50% 2.2 25
Spring Breakers A24 -55% 2.2 19

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $143 million total, ranking 16th of 52 weeks.  Last year, this weekend’s total was $140 million (while 2011 was $114 million and 2010 was $169 million, when Clash of the Titans opened and How to Train Your Dragon had its second weekend).  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very normal $144 million, even with the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up a small 2% from the same weekend last year.   

 

This Weekend Last Two Years

3.30.2012

Wrath of the Titans WB PG13 Sam Worthington Liam Neeson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $37 Actual: $33
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $90 Actual: $84
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $218

Mirror Mirror REL PG Julia Roberts Lily Collins
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $66 Actual: $65
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $98

4.1.2011

Hop UNI PG James Marsden Kaley Cuoco
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $24 Actual: $38
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $115 Actual: $108
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $76

Source Code SUMMIT PG13 Jake Gyllenhaal Vera Farmiga
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $15
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $54 Actual: $55
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $69

Insidious FILMDIS PG13 Patrick Wilson Rose Byrne
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $54
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $38

 

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

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About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.