Articles

March 26, 2014
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions MARCH 28-30

  • SumoMe

Weekend #13 of 2014 is looking like $122 million for the top 12 films, 14% below the typical volume for this weekend the past few years.

Opening at around 3,400 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Noah from Paramount should average $11,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $38.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are supportive: 76% positive so far. Noah is on track for around $116 million domestic.

Opening at 2,486 theaters Friday, Sabotage from Open Road Films should average a terrible $3,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $7.8 million opening weekend). No reviews at this time — the film is in the witness protection program until the last minute. Sabotage is headed for $19 million domestic.

Opening at about 600 theaters Friday, Cesar Chavez from Lionsgate/Summit should average a credible $8,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $5.2 million opening weekend). Reviews are polite at best: 46% positive so far. Cesar Chavez is headed for $16 million domestic.

Expanding to around 600 theaters Friday, Bad Words from Focus/Universal should average $7,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $4.3 million opening weekend). Through Sunday, the film should total about $5.3 million.  Reviews are somewhat positive: 64% positive so far. Bad Words is headed for $19 million domestic.

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

March 28-30, 2014

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Noah Par PG13 76% 38.5 116
Sabotage OpenR R n/a 7.8 19
Cesar Chavez LG/Sum PG13 46% 5.2 16
Bad Words Uni/Foc R 64% 4.3 19
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

 

Among the holdovers, Divergent will be tops and most likely #2 overall this weekend (behind Noah).  Grand Budapest Hotel continues to expand (to close to 900 theaters) and should approach $9 million this weekend and a total of $25 million through Sunday.

RETURNING FILMS

March 28-30, 2014

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Divergent LG/Sum -58% 23.0 155
Muppets Most Wanted Dis -40% 10.3 79
Grand Budapest Hotel FoxS n/a 8.7 57
Mr Peabody & Sherman  Fox/DWA -34% 7.9 117
God’s Not Dead Free -33% 6.2 25
300: Rise of an Empire WB -55% 3.9 115

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $141 million total, ranking 18th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $140 million (while 2012 was $140 million, 2011 was $114 million and 2010 was $169 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $122 million, 14% below the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and 13% below the same weekend last year.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years

3.29.2013

G.I. Joe: Retaliation Par PG13 The Rock Channing Tatum
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $41
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $136 Actual: $122
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $253

Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor LG/Sum PG13 Vanessa Williams Kim Kardashian
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $58 Actual: $52
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

The Host Open Road PG13 Saoirse Ronan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $28 Actual: $27
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $22

3.30.2012

Wrath of the Titans WB PG13 Sam Worthington Liam Neeson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $33
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $90 Actual: $84
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $218

Mirror Mirror REL PG Julia Roberts Lily Collins
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $66 Actual: $65
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $98

 

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.