Weekend #13 of 2014 is looking like $122 million for the top 12 films, 14% below the typical volume for this weekend the past few years.
Opening at around 3,400 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Noah from Paramount should average $11,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $38.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are supportive: 76% positive so far. Noah is on track for around $116 million domestic.
Opening at 2,486 theaters Friday, Sabotage from Open Road Films should average a terrible $3,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $7.8 million opening weekend). No reviews at this time — the film is in the witness protection program until the last minute. Sabotage is headed for $19 million domestic.
Opening at about 600 theaters Friday, Cesar Chavez from Lionsgate/Summit should average a credible $8,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $5.2 million opening weekend). Reviews are polite at best: 46% positive so far. Cesar Chavez is headed for $16 million domestic.
Expanding to around 600 theaters Friday, Bad Words from Focus/Universal should average $7,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $4.3 million opening weekend). Through Sunday, the film should total about $5.3 million. Reviews are somewhat positive: 64% positive so far. Bad Words is headed for $19 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND March 28-30, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Noah | Par | PG13 | 76% | 38.5 | 116 | |
| Sabotage | OpenR | R | n/a | 7.8 | 19 | |
| Cesar Chavez | LG/Sum | PG13 | 46% | 5.2 | 16 | |
| Bad Words | Uni/Foc | R | 64% | 4.3 | 19 | |
Among the holdovers, Divergent will be tops and most likely #2 overall this weekend (behind Noah). Grand Budapest Hotel continues to expand (to close to 900 theaters) and should approach $9 million this weekend and a total of $25 million through Sunday.
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RETURNING FILMS March 28-30, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Divergent | LG/Sum | -58% | 23.0 | 155 | |
| Muppets Most Wanted | Dis | -40% | 10.3 | 79 | |
| Grand Budapest Hotel | FoxS | n/a | 8.7 | 57 | |
| Mr Peabody & Sherman | Fox/DWA | -34% | 7.9 | 117 | |
| God’s Not Dead | Free | -33% | 6.2 | 25 | |
| 300: Rise of an Empire | WB | -55% | 3.9 | 115 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $141 million total, ranking 18th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $140 million (while 2012 was $140 million, 2011 was $114 million and 2010 was $169 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $122 million, 14% below the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and 13% below the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
3.29.2013
G.I. Joe: Retaliation Par PG13 The Rock Channing Tatum
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $41
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $136 Actual: $122
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $253
Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor LG/Sum PG13 Vanessa Williams Kim Kardashian
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $58 Actual: $52
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
The Host Open Road PG13 Saoirse Ronan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $28 Actual: $27
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $22
3.30.2012
Wrath of the Titans WB PG13 Sam Worthington Liam Neeson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $33
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $90 Actual: $84
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $218
Mirror Mirror REL PG Julia Roberts Lily Collins
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $66 Actual: $65
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $98
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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