>The 12th weekend of the year should be a whopper: about $176 million for the top 12 films. How big is that for the fourth weekend in March? Enormous, unprecedented: up 62% from last year’s comparable weekend and up 55% from the four-year average for this weekend. Of course, this weekend is all about The Hunger Games. You might have heard a thing or two about the film, as the buzz has been extraordinary.
Opening at 4,137 theaters, The Hunger Games from Lionsgate should average an outstanding $29,900 per theater (for $124 million Friday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at 91% positive, an indication that this film could play well at least through weeks two through four. The Hunger Games is on track for a preliminary $360 million domestically.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
March 23-25 Positive Weekend Total*
The Hunger Games LG PG13 91% $124 $360
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
21 Jump Street should decline 44% in its second weekend, a better than average figure and particularly strong in light of the tsunami from The Hunger Games at the top of the weekend chart. Look for about $20 million in the second weekend for the R-rated buddy comedy. The Lorax should decline a similar amount in its fourth weekend to almost $13 million. After the top three, the other films are fairly irrelevant, mostly in the very low single-digit millions of dollars.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
March 23-25 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
21 Jump Street Sony -44% $20.0 $122
The Lorax Uni -44% $12.8 $223
John Carter Dis -51% $ 6.6 $ 82
A Thousand Words Par -42% $ 2.1 $ 16
Safe House Uni -69% $ 1.5 $130
Journey 2 WB -61% $ 1.4 $103
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $114 million total, ranking 31st of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $109 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $117 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like an unprecedented $176 million, up an enormous 62% from this weekend last year and up a whopping 55% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years. The closest comparison for this weekend comes from 2009, when the top 12 films grossed $139 million as Monsters vs Aliens opened with $59.3 million.
This Weekend Last Two Years
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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