Weekend #12 of 2014 is looking like $149 million for the top 12 films, slightly better than this same weekend on average in previous years.
Opening at around 3,800 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Divergent from Lionsgate/Summit should average $16,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $63.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not supportive: only 24% positive so far. But reviews are irrelevant for this younger-skewing film. Divergent is on track for around $178 million domestic.
Opening at about 3,000 theaters Friday, Muppets Most Wanted from Disney should average a decent $8,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $26.5 million opening weekend). Reviews are solid: 73% positive reviews so far. Muppets Most Wanted is headed for $105 million domestic.
Opening at around 780 theaters Friday, God’s Not Dead from Freestyle Releasing should average about $4,800 per theater (for a $3.8 million opening weekend). The film is headed for about $9 million total domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND March 21-23, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Divergent | LG/Sum | PG13 | 24% | 63.5 | 178 | |
| Muppets Most Wanted | Dis | PG | 73% | 26.5 | 105 | |
| God’s Not Dead | Free | PG | n/a | 3.8 | 9 | |
Among the holdovers,Mr Peabody & Sherman looks to be the only one above $10 million this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS March 21-23, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Mr Peabody & Sherman | Fox/DWA | -42% | 12.6 | 123 | |
| 300: Rise of an Empire | WB | -51% | 9.4 | 122 | |
| Need for Speed | Dis | -54% | 8.2 | 48 | |
| Non-Stop | Uni | -41% | 6.3 | 95 | |
| Grand Budapest Hotel | FoxS | n/a | 4.8 | n/a | |
| The LEGO Movie | WB | -40% | 4.7 | 261 | |
| TP’s Single Moms Club | LG/Sum | -54% | 3.8 | 19 | |
| Son of God | Fox | -48% | 2.9 | 61 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $143 million total, ranking 17th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $130 million (while 2012 was $204 million — courtesy The Hunger Games, 2011 was $109 million and 2010 was $117 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $149 million, 4% above the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and 15% above the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
3.22.2013
The Croods Fox PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $40 Actual: $44
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $161 Actual: $187
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $400
Olympus Has Fallen FilmDis PG13 Gerard Butler Aaron Eckhart
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $89 Actual: $99
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $62
Spring Breakers A24 R Vanessa Hudgens Selena Gomez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $14
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $18
Admission FOC PG13 Tina Fey Paul Rudd
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $18
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
3.23.2012
The Hunger Games LG PG13 Jennifer Lawrence Josh Hutcherson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $124 Actual: $153
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $378 Actual: $408
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $277
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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