March 12, 2014
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions MARCH 14-16

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf

Weekend #11 of 2014 is looking like $115 million for the top 12 films, down from last weekend but actually 10% above the average for the comparable weekend the past several years.

Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday (slightly above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Need for Speed from Disney should average $8,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $25.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not supportive: only 26% positive so far. Need for Speed is on track for around $70 million domestic.

Opening at a small 1,800 theaters Friday, Tyler Perry’s Single Moms Club from Lionsgate/Summit should average a decent $9,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $17.0 million opening weekend). Reviews are non-existent, as critics will have to buy a ticket to see this Tyler Perry movie.  Single Moms Club is headed for $55 million domestic.

 

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

March 14-16, 2014

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Need for Speed Dis PG13 36% 25.5 70
TP’s Single Moms Club LG/Sum PG13 n/a 17.0 55
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

 

Among the holdovers, 300: Rise of an Empire and Mr Peabody & Sherman should be relatively close to Need for Speed at the top of the weekend chart.

RETURNING FILMS

March 14-16, 2014

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
300: Rise of an Empire WB -53% 21.0 127
Mr Peabody & Sherman Fox/DWA -39% 19.5 122
Non-Stop Uni -40% 9.5 92
The LEGO Movie WB -32% 7.4 260
Son of God Fox -43% 5.9 62
Frozen 3D Dis -27% 2.2 399
The Monuments Men Sony -35% 2.0 80
3 Days to Kill Rel -47% 1.6 29

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $105 million total, ranking 40th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $96 million (while 2012 was $98 million, 2011 was $103 million and 2010 was $115 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $115 million, 10% above the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and 20% below the same weekend last year.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years

3.15.2013

The Call Sony R Halle Berry Abigail Breslin
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $51 Actual: $52
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

Incredible Burt Wonderstone WB PG13 Steve Carell Jim Carrey
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $22
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

3.16.2012

21 Jump Street Sony R Jonah Hill Channing Tatum
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $30 Actual: $36
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $126 Actual: $138
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $63

Friends with Kids OpenRoad R Jennifer Westfeldt Adam Scott
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $1
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $9 Actual: $7
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

 

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.