The 9th weekend of 2013 looks like a problem: $96 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down 37% from the same weekend last year. One movie should open decently, while all the holdovers are wilting. The last six weeks are down 21% from the same period last year and down 20% from the average for this period over the last four years. Those numbers will only get worse after this weekend.
Opening at about 3,500 theaters Friday, Jack the Giant Slayer from Warner Brothers should average a decent $7,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $25.8 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are promising (71% positive reviews so far), indicating the potential for decent playability and word of mouth. Jack the Giant Slayer should be on course for $79 million domestic.
Opening at approximately 2,500 theaters Friday, 21 and Over from Relativity should average an okay $6,000 per theater for the weekend (for a $15.1 million opening weekend). No early reviews at RottenTomatoes at this time. 21 and Over is on track for $39 million domestic.
Opening at 2,600 theaters or so Friday, The Last Exorcism Part II from CBS Films should average a weak $3,700 per theater for the weekend (for a $9.6 million opening weekend). No early reviews at RottenTomatoes currently. The Last Exorcism Part II is headed for $24 million domestic.
Opening at approximately 2,000 theaters Friday, Phantom from RCR should average an Oogieloves-like $650 per theater for the weekend (for a $1.3 million opening weekend). Some critics will like anything: in this case, 18% positive at RottenTomatoes for a movie no one outside of the immediate family of cast and crew will see. Phantom will end with a little over $2 million domestic.
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND March 1-3, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Jack the Giant Slayer | WB | PG13 | 71% | 25.8 | 79 | |
| 21 and Over | Rel | R | n/a | 15.1 | 39 | |
| The Last Exorcism Part II | CBS | R | n/a | 9.6 | 24 | |
| Phantom | RCR | R | 18% | 1.3 | 2.5 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
No holdover above $10 million for the weekend. A lot of empty theaters.
|
RETURNING FILMS March 1-3, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Identity Thief | Uni | -39% | 8.6 | 134 | |
| Snitch | Summit | -42% | 7.6 | 41 | |
| Escape from Planet Earth | Weins | -37% | 6.8 | 61 | |
| Safe Haven | Rel | -44% | 5.9 | 70 | |
| Silver Linings Playbook | Weins | -12% | 5.1 | 115 | |
| A Good Day to Die Hard | Fox | -52% | 4.9 | 73 | |
| Dark Skies | Weins | -57% | 3.5 | 17 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $140 million total, ranking 19th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $152 million (while 2011 was $121 million and 2010 was $186 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very weak $96 million, down 31% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and down 37% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
3.2.2012
Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax UNI PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $47 Actual: $70
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $212 Actual: $214
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $97
Project X WB R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $65 Actual: $55
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $46
3.4.2011
Rango PAR PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $42 Actual: $38
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $126 Actual: $123
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $119
Adjustment Bureau UNI PG13 Matt Damon Emily Blunt
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $69 Actual: $62
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $65
Beastly CBS PG13 Alex Pettyfer Vanessa Hudgens
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $28
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
Take Me Home Tonight REL R Topher Grace Anna Faris
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $6 Actual: $7
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
###
About the Author
