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June 5, 2013
 

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS June 7-9

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The 23rd weekend of the year is looking like a wobbly $127 million for the top 12 films, well under the same weekend the last few years.  Three out of four weekends in May were anchored by solid commercial films (Iron Man 3, Star Trek Into Darkness and Fast & Furious 6).  But the first two weeks of June look pretty thin (Now You See Me and After Earth last weekend and The Purge and The Internship this weekend).  Four movies that will top out at well below $100 million domestic — closer to $75 million each.  Over the last two years, this weekend offered Prometheus, Madagascar 3 and Super 8 (among others).  None of those three will be long remembered, but they averaged over $150 million domestic and over $300 million overseas each: exactly the kind of performance that keeps the Hollywood machine humming.

Opening at over 2,400 theaters Friday (a slightly below average theater count), The Purge a thriller from Universal should average $8,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $20 million opening).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.]  The early reviews are mixed at RottenTomatoes: 53% positive, which is not horrible for a thriller.  The Purge should be on course for $61 million domestic.

Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday (a theater count somewhat above the 2,886 average the last two years), The Internship from 20th Century Fox should average a mediocre $5,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $16 million opening).  Early reviews are negative: only 33% positive so far and that number will probably drop over the next few days (just a hunch–for one, here’s Mitch Salem’s review).  The Internship should be on course for maybe $53 million domestic.  The television spots are stunningly unfunny, and even the film’s setting, Google, does not inspire confidence that laughs are in store.

 

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND 

June 7-9, 2013

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
The Purge Uni R 57% 20.0 61
The Internship Fox PG13 33% 16.0 53

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

 

Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me are the pick of the holdover litter this weekend.

RETURNING FILMS

June 7-9, 2013

 Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Fast & Furious 6 Uni -51% 17.4 252
Now You See Me Summit -42% 17.0 83
After Earth Sony -52% 13.3 65
Epic Fox -35% 10.8 107
Star Trek Into Darkness Par -43% 9.5 244
The Hangover Part III WB -48% 8.6 125
Iron Man 3 Dis -44% 4.8 416
Great Gatsby WB -41% 3.9 150

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $146 million total, ranking 15th of 52 weeks.  Last year, this weekend’s total was $174 million (while 2011 was $132 million and 2010 was $145 million).  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a sad $127 million, down 13% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down 27% from the same weekend last year.      

 

This Weekend Last Two Years

6.8.2012

Prometheus FOX R Noomi Rapace Michael Fassbender
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $56 Actual: $51
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $141 Actual: $126
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $277

Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted PAR PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $52 Actual: $60
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $210 Actual: $216
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $526

6.10.2011

Super 8 PAR PG13 Kyle Chandler Elle Fanning
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $35 Actual: $35
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $133 Actual: $127
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $133

Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer REL PG Heather Graham
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $12 Actual: $15
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

Midnight in Paris SONY PG13 Owen Wilson Rachel McAdams
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $56
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $92

 

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.