The 26th weekend of the year (halfway through already!) is looking like an on-target $189 million for the top 12 films, within a few percentage points of the comparable weekend the last few years.
Opening at around 3,000 3,222 theaters Friday (somewhat above the average 2,886 theater count for opening weekend wide releases), White House Down from Sony should average $12,900 $12,000 per theater for the weekend (for a $39 million opening). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] The early reviews are lukewarm at RottenTomatoes: 49% positive overall. See Mitch Salem’s entertaining and somewhat surprising review. White House Down should be on track for $110 million domestic.
Opening at about 3,000 3,181 theaters Friday, The Heat from 20th Century Fox should average $11,400 $10,700 per theater for the weekend (for a $34 million opening). No early reviews yet — The Sandra Bullock-Melissa McCarthy comedy is being shielded from critics has increasing critical support: now 66% positive at RottenTomatoes so far. The Heat should be on course for $105 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND June 28-30, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| White House Down | Sony | PG13 | 49% | 39.0 | 110 | |
| The Heat | Fox | R | 66% | 34.0 | 105 | |
Monsters University will be the dominant holdover (and probably hold on to the #1 spot), while World War Z and Man of Steel will still attract significant business.
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RETURNING FILMS June 28-30, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Monsters University | Dis | -48% | 43.2 | 265 | |
| World War Z | Par | -56% | 29.4 | 195 | |
| Man of Steel | WB | -52% | 20.0 | 305 | |
| This Is the End | Sony | -35% | 8.7 | 98 | |
| Now You See Me | Summit | -31% | 5.4 | 117 | |
| Fast & Furious 6 | Uni | -45% | 2.7 | 241 | |
| Star Trek Into Darkness | Par | -40% | 1.9 | 227 | |
| The Purge | Uni | -54% | 1.7 | 62 | |
| The Internship | Fox | -53% | 1.6 | 45 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $181 million total, ranking 3rd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $197 million (while 2011 was $192 million and 2010 was $181 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a sturdy $189 million, up 4% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend down a small 4% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
6.29.2012
Ted UNI R Mark Wahlberg Mila Kunis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $54
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $213 Actual: $219
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $327
Magic Mike WB R Channing Tatum Matthew McConaughey
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $33 Actual: $39
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $116 Actual: $114
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $54
Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection LG PG13 Tyler Perry Eugene Levy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $67 Actual: $66
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Moonrise Kingdom FOC PG13 Bill Murray Edward Norton
Opening Weekend — Forecast: n/a Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $46 Actual: $45
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21
People Like Us DIS PG13 Chris Pine Elizabeth Banks
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $12
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
7.1.2011
Transformers: Dark of the Moon PAR/ DW PG13 ShianLaBeouf Rosie Huntington-Whiteley
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $82 Actual: $98
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $390 Actual: $352
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $771
Larry Crowne UNI PG13 Tom Hanks Julia Roberts
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $36
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $17
Monte Carlo FOX PG Selena Gomez Katie Cassidy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $23
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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