WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS July 6-8: Spider-Man Returns to the Scene

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Weekend #27 of 2012 looks pretty solid: $185 million for the top 12 films, up 27% from last year’s comparable weekend and up 22% from the four-year average for the weekend. Much of this increase can be attributed to the calendar and the unusual placement of July 4 on a Wednesday, having little effect on either surrounding weekend.

Opening at 4,318 theaters, The Amazing Spider-Man from Sony should average $14,800 per theater (for $64.0 million for the traditional Friday-Sunday period). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] This will be a mere follow-up to the $70 million the movie should earn Tuesday-Thursday (an estimated $25 million Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by $20 million Thursday). The reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at 72% positive.  Amazing Spider-Man currently stands at a preliminary $280 million ShowbuzzDaily domestic estimate.

Opening at about 2,800 theaters on Friday, Savages from Universal should average $4,800 per theater (for $13.5 million Friday-Sunday). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are running 73% positive. Savages currently stands at a preliminary $45 million domestic estimate.

Opening Thursday at about 2,500 theaters, Katy Perry: Part of Me should average a woeful $4,300 per theater for the traditional weekend (for $10.5 million Friday-Sunday).  Another $4.5 million should be available Thursday.  Early reviews are surprisingly not horrible, currently 71% positive. Katy Perry has a preliminary $42 million domestic gross estimate.

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Ted will be the class of the returning films, attempting to hit $30 million in its second weekend.

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $152 million total, ranking 12th of 52 weeks. Last year (July 8-10) this weekend’s total was $146 million (while July 9-11, 2010 was $184 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $185 million, up 27% from this weekend last year and up 22% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years — although this weekend is a particularly difficult comparison because of the way July 4 bounces around the calendar.

This Weekend Last Two Years

7/8/11

Horrible Bosses WB R Jason Bateman Charlie Day
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27 Actual: $28
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $111 Actual: $117
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $92

Zookeeper SONY PG Kevin James Rosario Dawson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $71 Actual: $80
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $89

7/9/10

Despicable Me UNI PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $36 Actual: $56
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $211 Actual: $251
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $289

Predators FOX R Adrien Brody Topher Grace
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $26 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $56 Actual: $52
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $75

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

Posting from me is going to be a little spotty for several days, but Mitch Salem will keep the numbers and analysis and reviews flowing as best he can.

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