>2012 is underway with one wide release this weekend (and only 2,000 theaters or so at that) and one major expansion. The Devil Inside should battle Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol for the top spot this weekend. As a whole, the weekend volume for the top 12 films will be around $102 million, up about 3% from the same weekend last year (which was no picnic).
Opening at over 2,000 theaters, The Devil Inside from Paramount should average a decent $8,100 per theater (for $16.5 million Friday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] Critical assessment is unknown, as the horror film has not been released early for critics. The Devil Inside is on track for a preliminary $38 million domestically.
Expanding to around 750 theaters, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy from Focus/ Universal should average around $5,000 per theater (for $4.0 million Friday-Sunday). Critics have been very supportive: 85% positive at RottenTomatoes so far. The film should continue to expand slowly and play fairly well through awards season — we are giving it a preliminary estimate of a $25 million domestic final.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
January 6-8 Positive Weekend Total*
The Devil Inside Par R n/a $16.5 $ 38
Tinker Tailor Solider SpyFoc R 85% $ 4.0 $ 25
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The most tempting holiday leftover in the fridge, Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol, will battle The Devil Inside for the top spot this weekend. The other holdovers will be a touch above or below $10 million for the weekend, with fairly average 40% declines from last weekend.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
January 6-8 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Mission: Impossible 4 Par -44% $16.5 $240
Sherlock Holmes 2 WB -45% $11.5 $190
Alvin & Chipmunks 3 Fox -39% $10.0 $130
Girl Dragon Tattoo Sony -38% $ 9.0 $105
We Bought a Zoo Fox -37% $ 8.5 $ 85
War Horse DW/Dis -42% $ 8.5 $ 92
Adventures of Tintin Par -38% $ 7.0 $ 88
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $120 million total, ranking 26th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $99 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $149 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $102 million, up 3% from this weekend last year but down 16% from an “average” comparable weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.
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