Weekend #2 of 2014 is looking like $100 million for the top 12 films, a pretty shabby total for a weekend that normal totals $125 million or more.
Opening at around 2,700 theaters Friday (slightly below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Lone Survivor from Universal should average about $8,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $22.0 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are fairly supportive: 71% positive so far. Lone Survivor is on track for $69 million domestic.
Expanding to around 1,700 theaters Friday, Her from Warner Brothers should average about $5,000 per theater for the weekend (for an $8.5 million first wide weekend). Very broad support critical support: 91% positive at RottenTomatoes. Through Sunday, the film should total about $12 million (including the roughly $3.4 million in limited release through Thursday). It really is a terrific and daring film, but extremely hard to advertise and clearly not in the wheelhouse of the usually highly effective Warner Brothers Marketing machine. Her is headed for $34 million domestic.
Opening at around 2,000 theaters Friday, Legend of Hercules from Lionsgate/Summit should average a tragic $3,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $6.5 million opening weekend). No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. Legend of Hercules is on track for $15 million domestic.
August: Osage County from The Weinstein Company is headed for a $3.7 million first semi-wide weekend. Reviews are relatively mixed for a film that needs raves to thrive in the marketplace: 64% positive currently. August: Osage County should total somewhere over $4 million through Sunday and is on track for $16 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND January 10-12, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Lone Survivor | Uni | R | 71% | 22.0 | 69 | |
| Her | WB | R | 91% | 8.5 | 34 | |
| Legend of Hercules | LG/Sum | PG13 | n/a | 6.5 | 15 | |
| August: Osage County | Weins | R | 64% | 3.7 | 16 | |
As people get back to work and school, the box office goes into a bit of hibernation, completely normal for this time of year. Only one holdover (Frozen) has a real shot of grossing more than $10 million this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS January 10-12, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Frozen 3D | Dis | -36% | 12.5 | 370 | |
| The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug | WB | -45% | 8.6 | 270 | |
| The Wolf of Wall Street | Par | -39% | 8.1 | 114 | |
| American Hustle | Sony | -38% | 7.7 | 132 | |
| Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones | Par | -65% | 6.4 | 43 | |
| Saving Mr. Banks | Dis | -32% | 5.9 | 89 | |
| Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues | Par | -48% | 5.6 | 146 | |
| Secret Life of Walter Mitty | Fox | -39% | 4.9 | 78 | |
| Hunger Games: Catching Fire | LG/Sum | -57% | 4.3 | 420 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $138 million total, ranking 21st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $121 million (while 2012 was $115 million, 2011 was $115 million and 2010 was $157 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a poor $100 million, down 27% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down 17% from the comparable weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
1.11.2013
Zero Dark Thirty (wide release) Sony R Jessica Chastain Jason Clarke
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $24
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $100 Actual: $96
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $13
Gangster Squad WB R Sean Penn Ryan Gosling
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $51 Actual: $46
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $59
A Haunted House Open Road R Marlon Wayans
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $43 Actual: $40
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
1.13.2012
Iron Lady (wide release) WEINS PG13 Meryl Streep Jim Broadbent
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $30
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $85
Contraband UNI R Mark Wahlberg Kate Beckinsale
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $24
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $76 Actual: $66
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $30
Beauty and the Beast 3D DIS G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $60 Actual: $47
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $14
Joyful Noise WB PG13 Queen Latifah Dolly Parton
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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