The fifth weekend of 2013 should total a bad $70 million for the top 12 films, 30% below the normal pace for this weekend.
Opening in about 2,900 theaters Friday, Warm Bodies from Summit should average $6,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $20.0 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Only seven critics have posted so far at RottenTomatoes, but all of them have been positive. Warm Bodies will approach $68 million domestic.
Opening at about 2,400 theaters, Bullet to the Head from Warner Brothers should average a pitiful $2,800 per theater (for a $6.8 million opening weekend). Bullet to the Head should end up with about $23 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND February 1-3, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Warm Bodies | Summit | PG13 | 100% | 20.0 | 68 | |
| Bullet to the Head | WB | R | 56% | 6.8 | 23 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
All of the holdovers are starting to settle down, with the biggest (Hansel and Gretel) just under $8 million for the weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS February 1-3, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters | Par | -61% | 7.8 | 50 | |
| Silver Linings Playbook | Weins | -24% | 7.2 | 95 | |
| Mama | Uni | -53% | 6.1 | 78 | |
| Zero Dark Thirty | Sony | -44% | 5.4 | 100 | |
| Parker | FilmDis | -51% | 3.5 | 20 | |
| Django Unchained | Weins | -40% | 3.0 | 165 | |
| Lincoln | Fox/Dis/DW | -30% | 2.7 | 175 | |
| Les Miserables | Uni | -42% | 2.5 | 150 | |
| Movie 43 | Rel | -50% | 2.4 | 7 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $100 million total, ranking 42nd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $94 million (while 2011 was $73 million and 2010 was $100 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a weak $70 million, down 30% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and down 26% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
2.3.2012
Chronicle FOX PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $73 Actual: $64
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $62
Woman in Black CBS PG13 Daniel Radcliffe Ciaran Hinds
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $59 Actual: $54
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $73
Big Miracle UNI PG John Krasinski Drew Barrymore
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $20
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $5
2.4.2011
The Roommate SONY PG13 Minka Kelly Leighton Meester
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $15
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $39 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $3
Sanctum UNI R Ioan Gruffudd
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $30 Actual: $23
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $56
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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