The weekend before Christmas offers four wide releases and another fairly-wide release. What a collection of underperformers. The weekend should total a very uninspired $112 million for the top 12 films. The 51st weekend of the year averages $172 million, and the last time this weekend started on December 21 (2007), the top 12 films added up to $152 million. But that weekend featured the opening of a bona fide hit (National Treasure: Book of Secrets with $44.8 million Friday-Sunday) and terrific second weekends from two films (I Am Legend with $33.5 million and Alvin and the Chipmunks with $28.2 million).
This weekend has the second outing for The Hobbit (at over $40 million) and a bunch of newcomers which will struggle to break out of the teens. Of course, even if Jack Reacher opens with only $15 million as forecast, remember that all is not lost. Unlike most other times of the year, the film still has the golden week between Christmas and New Year’s ahead (basically seven Saturdays in a row) to make up for lost time and turn in a final gross much higher than a $15 million opening weekend would normally suggest. Nonetheless, it is still pretty sad that no newcomer has a shot at a real gross with a $25+ million opening.
Opening at around 3,200 theaters Friday, Jack Reacher from Paramount should average $4,700 per theater (for a $15 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Critics are actually pretty positive (the film has a 79% positive rating at RottenTomatoes). Jack Reacher should gross $90 million domestic.
Opening at about 2,900 theaters Friday, This Is 40 from Universal and Judd Apatow should average a similar $4,700 per theater (for a $14 million opening weekend). Critics are only somewhat positive (currently 63% positive rating at RottenTomatoes). This Is 40 should gross $85 million domestic.
Opening at 2,618 theaters today, Monsters, Inc. 3D from Disney and Pixar should average $3,600 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $9.5 million traditional opening weekend and $12 million Wednesday-Sunday). Critics love the film (95% positive rating at RottenTomatoes), but then again it is over a decade old, which is another epoch for the newest generation of kids. Monsters, Inc. should gross another $70 million domestic in this 3D re-release, on top of the $255.9 million domestic back in 2001.
Opening at 2,431 theaters today, The Guilt Trip from Paramount should average a pitiful $2,900 per theater (for a $6.8 million opening weekend and $10 million Wednesday-Sunday). Critics are not showing much love for the combination of Seth Rogen and Barbra Streisand (33% positive rating at RottenTomatoes), which is not a good sign for playability over the holiday season. The Guilt Trip should gross $59 million domestic.
Opening at about 800 theaters Friday, Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Apart 3D from Paramount should average $3,800 per theater (for a $3 million opening weekend). Only a handful of reviews so far at RottenTomatoes — but the early word is quite promising: 86% positive. Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Apart should gross $40 million domestic.
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND December 21-23, 2012 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Jack Reacher | Par | PG13 | 79% | 15.0 | 90 | |
| This Is 40 | Uni | R | 63% | 14.0 | 85 | |
| Monsters, Inc. 3D | Dis | G | 95% | 9.5 | 70 | |
| The Guilt Trip | Par | R | 33% | 6.8 | 59 | |
| Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away 3D | Par | PG | 86% | 3.0 | 40 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Among the holdovers, there is The Hobbit and not much else.
|
RETURNING FILMS December 21-23, 2012 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | WB | -51% | 41.5 | 285 | |
| Rise of the Guardians | Par/DW | -22% | 5.6 | 89 | |
| Lincoln | Dis | -23% | 5.5 | 133 | |
| Skyfall | Sony | -37% | 4.2 | 287 | |
| Life of Pi | Fox | -32% | 3.7 | 87 | |
| Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 | Sum | -40% | 3.1 | 284 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $172 million total, ranking 5th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $114 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $132 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a pretty pathetic $112 million, down 34% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and down another 2% from the same weekend last year, which was the weakest in years.
This Weekend Last Two Years
12.23.2011
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo SONY R Daniel Craig Rooney Mara
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $29 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $110 Actual: $103
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $130
Adventures of Tintin PAR PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $92 Actual: $78
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $296
We Bought a Zoo FOX PG Matt Damon Scarlett Johansson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $88 Actual: $75
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $40
War Horse DIS PG13 Benedict Cumberbatch Tom Hiddleston
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $94 Actual: $80
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $98
Darkest Hour SUMMIT PG13 Emile Hirsch Olivia Thirlby
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $43
12.24.2010
Little Fockers UNI PG13 Ben Stiller Robert DeNiro
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $40 Actual: $31
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $180 Actual: $148
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $162
True Grit PAR PG13 Jeff Bridges Josh Brolin
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $170 Actual: $171
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $78
Gulliver’s Travels FOX PG Jack Black Jason Segel
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $56 Actual: $43
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $195
King’s Speech WEINS R Colin Firth Geoffrey Rush
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $53 Actual: $135
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $275
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
###
About the Author
