Weekend Box Office Predictions AUGUST 9-11

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The 32nd weekend of the year is looking like $165 million for the top 12 films, a very good result for the second week of August.  Four movies aimed at very different audiences should open reasonably well, giving the box office a short term boost.  But most of the four openers should disappear quickly, and the current crop of holdovers is really losing steam.  In a few weeks, box office will look very weak, indeed.

Opening at around 2,700 3,284 theaters Friday (just under comfortably above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Elysium from Sony should average $13,300 $10,900 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $35.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.]  The early reviews at RottenTomatoes are promising (especially compared to the other three openers this week): 66% positive so far. Elysium should be on track for $100 million domestic.

Opening at about 3,400 3,702 theaters Friday, Planes from Disney should average $8,200 $7,500 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $27.5 million opening Friday-Sunday). The film is scoring a weak 29% positive score at RottenTomatoes. Planes should be on course for maybe $100 million domestic.  This is not a Pixar film (despite the very Pixar-like appearance of the characters and marketing). The critics are not giving this film the adoration they usually heap on Pixar movies, and audiences will not be fooled after the first few days.

Opening at around 3,150 3,260 theaters today, We’re the Millers from Warner Brothers should average $7,300 $7,100 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $23 million opening Friday-Sunday). Combined with an estimated $9 million today and Thursday, the comedy should total $32 million through Sunday. The film is scoring a soft 30% positive score at RottenTomatoes. We’re the Millers should be on course for $85 million domestic.

Opening at around 2,800 2,907 theaters today, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters from 20th Century Fox should average $6,900 $6,700 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $19.5 million opening Friday-Sunday). Combined with an estimated $8 million today and Thursday, the sequel should total $27 million through Sunday. The film is scoring 28% positive score at RottenTomatoes so far. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters should be on course for $60 million domestic, well below the $88.8 million domestic total for Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief (released February 12, 2010).