WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS August 31-September 2

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Weekend #35 of 2012 looks fairly similar to the Labor Day weekends over the past few years.  Only about $81 million for the top 12 films this weekend (defined as the three-day Friday-Sunday portion we always concentrate on), and very little chance of any new film breaking out on what is traditionally a very rough weekend for new product.

Opening at about 2,700 theaters Friday, The Possession from Lionsgate should average $4,200 per theater (for an $11.4 million opening weekend and about $14 million Friday-Monday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.]  The Possession should end its domestic run with about $24 million before being driven out of the nation’s theaters.  Currently, critics are 22% positive at RottenTomatoes — not a good sign for any continuing business, especially given its genre.

Opening at 2,565 theaters today, Lawless from Weinstein should average a tepid $3,900 per theater (for a $10.0 million Friday-Sunday and $14.5 million Wednesday-Monday).  The film might get to $34 million domestic on the basis of some acceptable word of mouth (currently 65% positive at RottenTomatoes).

Finally, opening today at 2,160 theaters, Oogieloves in the BIG Balloon from Kenn Viselman Presents should average $1,400 per theater Friday-Sunday (for an opening Friday-Sunday of about $2.9 million and about $5 million Wednesday-Monday).  If you have a child that loves Thomas & Friends or Teletubbies, you might be asked to take him or her to the theater.  But this is one incredibly narrow niche.  Oogieloves should top out at $9 million domestic when it leaves theaters, probably the last Kenn Viselman Presents production.

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Benefiting from more theaters and perhaps a bump from the Republican National Convention coverage this week, 2016 Obama’s America should be up more than 10% from last weekend.  The other returning films will be down from last weekend, although the declines are usually much less severe over the Friday-Sunday portion of the Labor Day weekend (mostly because of increased business on Sunday night).  

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged a pitiful $74 million total, ranking 51st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $82 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $81 million).  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a $81 million, up 11% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and down a scant 1% from last year.  

This Weekend Last Two Years

9.2.2011

Apollo 18 WEINS PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $18 Actual: $18
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $8

Shark Night 3D REL PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21

The Debt FOC R Sam Worthington Helen Mirren
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $14

9.3.2010

Machete FOX R Danny Trejo Robert DeNiro
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $34 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16

Going the Distance WB R Drew Barrymore Justin Long
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $24 Actual: $18
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $24

The American UNI R George Clooney
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $44 Actual: $35
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $30

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

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