Weekend #34 of 2012 looks like a typically bad fourth weekend of August. Three shitty new films open and a political documentary goes semi-wide, and each should be well under $10 million for the weekend. The top 12 films this weekend should total $89 million, about the same pace for the comparable weekend the last few years. This is the beginning of a seven-week stretch in which weekend box office remains under $92 million each week, until the box office starts to re-awaken in mid-October.
Opening at about 2,100 theaters Friday, Premium Rush from Sony should average $4,000 per theater (for an $8.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] The audience is not begging for a Joseph Gordon-Levitt thriller about a bike messenger in jeopardy. The film might gross $20 million domestic, less than Sony’s legal fees to defend against claims of intellectual property theft by a Bay Area writer.
Opening at 2,870 theaters, Hit and Run from Open Road Films should average a lame $2,400 per theater (for a $7.0 million opening three-day weekend and $10 million Wednesday-Sunday). The film might get to $18 million domestic. Written by, co-directed by and starring Dax Shepard, the film should be about as appealing and interesting as a typical Parenthood episode. The only film this weekend released for critics, it is currently running at 46% positive on RottenTomatoes.
Expanding to over 1,000 theaters, 2016 Obama’s America from Rocky Mountain Films should average $5,500 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $5.5 million weekend). Conservative Dinesh D’Souza explores the President’s family tree in Kenya and discusses the ideological influences that shaped a Presidency. The film might hit $18 million domestic.
Finally, opening Friday in around 800 theaters, The Apparition from Warner Brothers should average $3,300 per theater Friday-Sunday (for an opening weekend of under $3 million). The Joel Silver-produced film should be turned away from theaters quickly and end with around $7 million domestic.
|NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND||($ millions)|
|August 24-26, 2012||Critics Positive||Opening Weekend Forecast||Domestic Total Projection|
|Hit and Run||Open Road||R||46%||7.0||18|
|2016: Obama’s America||Rocky Mtn||PG||n/a||5.5||18|
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Expendables 2 should be the lone film to break $10 million this weekend.
|RETURNING FILMS||($ millions)|
|August 24-26, 2012||Change vs Last Weekend||Weekend Forecast||Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.|
|Odd Life of Timothy Green||Dis||-35%||7.0||36|
|Dark Knight Rises||WB||-38%||6.9||442|
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged a dreadful $88 million total, ranking 45th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $75 million (while 2010′s comparable weekend was $95 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a $89 million, up 19% from this weekend last year but even (+1%) versus an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years.
This Weekend Last Two Years
Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark FILMDISR Katie Holmes Guy Pearce
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $31 Actual: $24
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $13
Colombiana SONY PG13 Zoe Saldana Michael Vartan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $24
Our Idiot Brother WEINS R Paul Rudd Elizabeth Banks
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $32 Actual: $25
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
The Last Exorcism LG PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $49 Actual: $41
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $26
Takers SONY PG13 Chris Brown Hayden Christensen
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $60 Actual: $58
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $11
Avatar: Special Edition FOX PG13 Sam Worthington Zoe Saldana
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $17 Actual: $10
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.