The 33rd weekend of the year is looking like $133 million for the top 12 films, up a sizable 17% from the average for a normally extremely sleepy weekend.
Opening at around 2,800 2,940 theaters Friday (very close to the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Kick-Ass 2 from Universal should average $8,900 $8,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $24.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] The early reviews at RottenTomatoes are middling trending downward: 47% 29% positive so far. Kick-Ass 2 should be on track for $70 million domestic.
Opening at about 2,500 2,933 theaters Friday, Lee Daniels’ The Butler from Weinstein should average $8,300 $7,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $20.5 million opening weekend). The film is scoring a strong 85% solid 77% positive score at RottenTomatoes. The paid marketing has been pretty standard fare, but the unpaid media attention (particularly the fight with Warner Brothers over its absurd claim to the title). Lee Daniels’ The Butler should be on course for maybe $78 million domestic, with a relatively long play in theaters thanks to an older audience.
Opening at around 2,000 2,381 theaters Friday, Jobs from Open Road Films should average $4,900 $4,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $10.0 million opening weekend). The film is scoring a soft 40% weak 27% positive score at RottenTomatoes so far. Jobs should be on course for $26 million domestic.
Opening at around 2,400 2,459 theaters Friday, Paranoia from Relativity should average $4,000 $3,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $9.5 million opening weekend). The film is apparently be hidden from critics: no reviews yet is off to a horrific critical start (an abysmal 6% positive at RottenTomatoes so far). Paranoia should be on course for $22 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND August 16-18, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Kick-Ass 2 | Uni | R | 29% | 24.5 | 70 | |
| Lee Daniels’ The Butler | Weins | PG13 | 77% | 20.5 | 78 | |
| Jobs | Open | PG13 | 27% | 10.0 | 26 | |
| Paranoia | Rel | PG13 | 6% | 9.5 | 22 | |
We’re the Millers is the top holdover, but at $16.2 million for its second weekend, that’s not saying much.
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RETURNING FILMS August 16-18, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| We’re the Millers | WB | -39% | 16.2 | 105 | |
| Elysium | Sony | -53% | 14.1 | 85 | |
| Planes | Dis | -40% | 13.3 | 85 | |
| Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters | Fox | -47% | 7.6 | 52 | |
| The Smurfs 2 | Sony | -37% | 5.9 | 63 | |
| 2 Guns | Uni | -48% | 5.6 | 75 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $114 million total, ranking 35th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $127 million (while 2011 was $106 million and 2010 was $110 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a pretty decent $133 million, up 17% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 4% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
8.17.2012
The Expendables 2 LG R Sylvester Stallone Jason Statham
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $36 Actual: $29
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $87 Actual: $85
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $215
ParaNorman FOC PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $55 Actual: $56
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $51
Sparkle TRI PG13 Jordin Sparks Whitney Houston
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $28 Actual: $24
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
The Odd Life of Timothy Green DIS PG Jennifer Garner Joel Edgerton
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $45 Actual: $52
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
8.19.2011
Spy Kids: All the Time in the World WEINS PG Jessica Alba Antonio Banderas
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $38
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $37
Conan the Barbarian LG R Jason Momoa Stephen Lang
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $28
Fright Night DW/DIS R Anton Yelchin Colin Farrell
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $18
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $23
One Day FOC PG13 Anne Hathaway Jim Sturgess
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $14 Actual: $14
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $43
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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