>The calendar turns to the second quarter of the year, and the 14th weekend of the year should be another strong one: about $141 million for the top 12 films up 37% from last year’s comparable weekend and up 31% from the four-year average for this weekend. Three films have a good shot at earning more than $30 million Friday-Sunday: the sequel American Reunion, the 3D re-release of Titanic (which opened today), and the third weekend of The Hunger Games.
Opening at over 3,200 theaters on Friday, American Reunion from Universal should average a decent $10,300 per theater (for $33 million Friday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a so-so 53% positive. American Reunion is on track for a preliminary $106 million domestic, compared to $145.1 million for American Pie 2 back in August 2001 and $102.6 million for American Pie in July 1999.
Opening at 2,674 theaters today, Titanic (3D) from Paramount should average a very good $11,900 per theater for the traditional three-day weekend (for $32 million Friday-Sunday and $45 million Wednesday-Sunday). Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a very good 86% positive. Titanic (3D) is on track for a preliminary $105 million domestic, a little extra contribution to the $1.843 billion worldwide gross from the film’s original run in quaint 2D.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
April 6-8 Positive Weekend Total*
American Reunion Uni R 53% $33.0 $106
Titanic (3D) Par PG13 86% $32.0 $105
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The Hunger Games should fight its way to over $30 million in its third weekend. It had a rough second Monday (down 58% from the first Monday) but Tuesday was relatively stronger (down 48% from the first Tuesday). We are forecasting the third weekend decline will be more in line with Tuesday’s fall-off, making for a fairly close three-way battle for first-place this weekend.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
April 6-8 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
The Hunger Games LG -48% $30.5 $375
Wrath of the Titans WB -54% $15.5 $ 86
Mirror Mirror Rel -43% $10.5 $ 43
21 Jump Street Sony -36% $ 9.5 $132
The Lorax Uni -30% $ 5.5 $213
John Carter Dis -43% $ 1.2 $ 72
Act of Valor Rel -58% $ 1.1 $ 71
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $107 million total, ranking 34th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $103 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $119 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $141 million, up a 37% from this weekend last year and up 31% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years.
This Weekend Last Two Years
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