Articles

April 3, 2013
 

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS April 5-7

The box office is starting to stabilize after a rough first quarter of the year.  This weekend’s top 12 films should total about $120 million, within 3% of the same weekend in recent years and the second weekend in a row to buck the strong downward trend most of the winter.

Opening at a slightly above average 3,000+ theaters Friday, Evil Dead from Sony should average a decent $8,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $26.5 million opening weekend).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.]  Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are strong, especially for a horror film (81% positive reviews so far).  Evil Dead should be on course for $75 million domestic.

Opening at approximately 2,600 theaters Friday, Jurassic Park 3D from Universal should average an okay $6,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $17.5 million opening weekend).  Positive reviews (89% positive) for the movie that was cutting edge back in 1994.  Jurassic Park 3D is on track for about $45 million domestic (below the $57 million for Titanic 3D in April 2012).

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND 

April 5-7, 2013

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Evil Dead Sony R 81% 26.5 75
Jurassic Park 3D Uni PG13 89% 17.5 45

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

 

A look at the holdovers this weekend.    

RETURNING FILMS

April 5-7, 2013

 Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
G.I. Joe: Retaliation Par -50% 20.2 127
The Croods Fox -31% 18.5 160
Tyler Perry’s Temptation LG -57% 9.3 57
Olympus Has Fallen FilmDis -45% 7.8 88
Oz the Great and Powerful Dis -41% 6.9 236
The Host OpenRoad -53% 5.0 19
The Call Sony -46% 2.7 51
Admission Foc/Uni -44% 1.8 18

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $116 million total, ranking 31st of 52 weeks.  Last year, this weekend’s total was $117 million (while 2011 was $103 million and 2010 was $119 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a fairly normal $120 million, up 3% from both the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and the same weekend last year.   

 

This Weekend Last Two Years

4.6.2012

American Reunion UNI R Jason Biggs Seann William Scott
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $28 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $64 Actual: $57
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $178

Titanic (3D) PAR PG13 Leonardo DiCaprio Kate Winslet
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $26 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $81 Actual: $58
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $286

4.8.2011

Hanna FOC PG13 Eric Bana Cate Blanchett
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $44 Actual: $40
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $24

Arthur WB PG13 Russell Brand Helen Mirren
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $33
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $13

Soul Surfer TRIPG Dennis Quaid AnnaSophia Robb
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $44
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

Your Highness UNI R Danny McBride James Franco
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $22 Actual: $22
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $3

 

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

###



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.