>Weekend #17 of 2012 looks like it will be about $112 million for the top 12 films, down 23% from last year’s comparable weekend (when Fast Five exploded with an $86 million opening weekend) and down 17% from the four-year average for this weekend. A lack of compelling new product should make this weekend the most disappointing in an otherwise very rosy 2012. The Five-Year Engagement should open with just under $20 million, not a great opening but enough to edge past the second weekend of Think Like a Man. Two other openers, The Raven and Pirates! Band of Misfits, should battle with The Lucky One and The Hunger Games in the $10-12 million range for each movie.
Opening at around 2,800 theaters, The Five-Year Engagement from Universal should average a decent $7,050 per theater (for $19.5 million Friday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a good 59% positive for the film starring Jason Segel and Emily Blunt. Five-Year Engagement is on track for a preliminary $70 million domestic.
Opening at only 2,000 theaters, The Raven from Relativity should average $5,600 per theater (for $11 million Friday-Sunday). Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at an anemic 21% positive. The Raven (starring John Cusack) is on track for a preliminary $29 million domestic.
Opening at around 3,000 theaters, The Pirates! Band of Misfits from Sony should average a weak $3,400 per theater (for $10.5 million Friday-Sunday). Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a surprisingly good 86% positive. Pirates! is on track for a preliminary $38 million domestic, indicating a solid multiple from its soft opening weekend thanks to the good reviews and its kid-friendly animation genre.
Finally, opening at 2,200 theaters, Safe from Lionsgate should average a weak $3,600 per theater (for $7.9 million Friday-Sunday). Reviews for this Jason Statham action film are currently at 63% positive. Safe is headed for a preliminary $27 million domestic.
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
April 27-29 Positive Weekend Total*
Five-Year Engagement Uni R 59% $19.5 $ 70
The Raven Rel R 21% $11.0 $ 29
Pirates! Band of MisfitsSony PG 86% $10.5 $ 38
Safe LG R 63% $ 7.9 $ 27
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Think Like a Man will battle it out for #1 this weekend with Five-Year Engagement but will probably have settle for second place. Also dropping just under 50%, The Lucky One and The Hunger Games should be the other films grossing over $10 million this weekend.
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
April 27-29 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Think Like a Man Sony -48% $17.5 $108
The Lucky One WB -46% $12.0 $ 60
The Hunger Games LG -49% $10.5 $389
Three Stooges Fox -67% $ 5.7 $ 53
Chimpanzee Dis -48% $ 5.5 $ 32
Cabin in the Woods LG -68% $ 4.5 $ 48
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $134 million total, ranking 19th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was an unusually strong $145 million (driven by a powerful opening for Fast Five), while the same weekend in 2010 was $92 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like a weak $112 million, down 23% from this weekend last year and down 17% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years.
This Weekend Last Two Years